January in April…..
Did a little product testing this morning and that has to be the driest powder I have ever ridden in April. It was also the coldest day of riding this season. Temperatures continue to fall this morning, it is now 11 degrees at 8500 ft. and 22 at lake level.
The heavier snow band is finally over the North end of the lake just South of Truckee and will push South into the afternoon. The sun attempting to warm the cold air will get snow showers firing as well today and they will become more numerous. Here is a link to the NWS analysis of what happened to the cold front that was supposed to push through early this morning and bring heavy snow.
From This Morning:
Resort Totals page is updated as of 6 a.m. Resorts picked up 4-9 inches over night with the precip ahead of the cold front. The interesting thing is that the resorts East of the crest picked up the most snow with Northstar & Mt. Rose both reporting 9 inches. 2-3 inches being reported at lake level so far on the Reader Reports page.
The cold front is still North of the area as of 6 a.m. and is moving slowly towards the South. The heaviest snow will be associated with the cold front as is pushes through this morning. Temperatures have been dropping all morning and are now 23 degrees at lake level and 13 degrees above 8000 ft. That means snow ratios of 15-25:1 as the cold front pushes through this morning so the snow will pile up fast.
Models backed off a tad overnight on total liquid, but are right in the range we were using for the forecast yesterday. We should pickup another 3-6 inches by tonight at lake level, 5-10 inches above 7000 ft., and up to 6-12 inches above 8000 ft. and along the crest.
As the low rotates by to our South tonight the models have now increased the amount of wrap around moisture that could rotate through. We could pick up another couple of inches at lake level and 3-6 inches on the mountains. We will have to watch this develop tonight to see if the totals need to be adjusted up or down a little.
Scattered snow showers could linger on Friday with the cold are sticking around. Highs will only rebound into the 20′s on the mountains and 30′s at lake level. Over the weekend we will begin to warm back into the 30′s on the mountains and 40′s at lake level, and could even break 50 at lake level on Sunday as the ridge builds back in.
There is a storm moving by to our North on Monday that will mostly act to knock temps down a few degrees as moisture stays to our North. The ridge builds back in for Tuesday-Thursday with temperatures climbing towards the 40′s on the mountains and 50′s at lake level.
The models are struggling with the pattern for the end of next week and beyond. There is going to be retrogression of the ridge back to someplace just South of the Aleutian islands. It appears that this pattern could setup and hold for about a week beginning next Friday just like has happened for a week every month but January. The jetstream will be weaker this time and the sun is stronger but we should have unsettled weather and below average temperatures.
Depending on where exactly the ridge sets up and where the low in the Northeast Pacific sets up will make a big difference in how much snow we get. If the ridge is a little too far West then we could be on the East side of the trough and just have a week of brush-by storms to our North as the jestream focuses on the Pacific NW. If the ridge is a little further East the trough will be further down the West coast and we could have a series of storms rotate through for about a week.
This pattern has brought us a lot of snow this winter, but now that we are in April the chances of big snows is much less. But even a series of small snowstorms in mid-April is impressive. We will have to monitor the setup of this pattern for mid-month, especially since the models are not so accurate in Spring. The teleconnetions are favorable for this pattern though. Stay tuned….BA
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