July Numbers/Peek at Winter
Had another dry month in July which is normally a dry month. The Tahoe Basin received 49% of average precip in July bringing the water year total down to 92%. The Truckee River Basin received 60% of average precip in July bringing the water year total down to 97% of average.
The average temperature in Truckee for July was 60 degrees. This number is what gives the town the fame of coldest town in the U.S. with a very low avearage temp through the summer. That was 2.4 degrees below the average for the month of July. We have been averaging about 11 of 12 months out of the year below average the last 3 years. A lot of that can be attributed to the colder than average Pacific.
La Nina conditions are taking hold and getting strong quite quickly over the summer. Look HERE. This is the weekly NWS ENSO discussion that shows all the info with the progressing La Nina.
Right now my analog years are 55-56, 73-74, & 88-89. Those were the last 3 strong La Nina’s that were as strong as this one is forcasted to be by December. The first 2 were during the cold PDO cycle like we are in now. The latter 2 came off of strong El Nino years like this year. 55-56 was not after a strong El Nino year but it was at the beginning of the last cold PDO cycle, about where we are now. All three of these winters were above average snowfall for Donner Summit, anywhere from 50-150 inches above average. It is also going to be a cold winter so what does fall should stick around a while. These 3 years were also big snowpack years. I will continue to study these winters and a few others and hope to come out with my winter forecast by mid-September.
Below is the post showing the Accuweather.com/Joe Bastardi winter forecast which lines up well with my analog winters. Stay tuned……..BA
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