A little delay in the June re-cap, but it’s summer so i’m on island time till the fall. We are experiencing below average temps this week of about 10 degrees as a cold low slowly pushed down the coast from the Pacific NW. We have a chance of some thunderstorms Thursday and Friday as the unstable airmass gets closer. Starting Monday we should begin to warm back to average in the 80′s next week.

June was another cold and wet month. The Truckee airport reporting station came in at 6.2 degrees below average. Only 5 days in the month were above average. I have been putting the average monthly temperature on a spreadsheet for the past 13 years. What is interesting is that it has really been getting colder the past few years. I graphed the departures for the past 10 years which you can find on the “Weather Charts” page. You can see it was getting warmer until about 2004 and then it plateaued around .8 degrees below average until about 2007. Since 2007 it has been going down more each year.

2007 is around the time the North Pacific began to cool and go into the negative PDO cycle. I think we are seeing how much of an affect the PDO cycle really has on our weather. The 10 year average is now at 1.8 below average, the 3 year is at 3.1 below average, the 1 year is at 4.0 below average, and now the first 6 months of this year are at 5.4 degrees below average as an average each month. The data i’m pulling can be found on my “Forecasting Tools” page under “Truckee Reporting Station”.

The Tahoe Basin received 296 percent of average precip in June in yet another big month for precip. Much of that was snow in the first week of the month. The Truckee River Basin received 341 percent of average precip. That puts both basins at 142% of average precip on the entire water year which runs through the end of September. This data is pulled from NWS Reno hydrology report. According to Mark McLaughlin at thestormking.com, that puts this water year now at 8th wettest since 1946.

I hope everyone is having a good summer. As we go into August it will be time to start taking a closer look at the forecast for next winter. Where the ENSO region water temps are at along with the PDO region should help to start pointing us in the right direction. A reader sent me a good research piece on the correlation between the two and where winter usually goes next. I will share those insights and charts in the months to come. Stay tuned….BA

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