Just the Primer……
Update 5 PM:
Looking at the afternoon model runs they have increased the total liquid slightly to around 2-2.5 inches of liquid. Looking at the temps at 8,000 ft. for Tuesday night and Wednesday they are around 20 degrees which is 20:1 snow ratios on top of the resorts. This could be the biggest 24 hour snowfall of the season. Going to fine tune the forecast a little to 1.5-2.5 feet around the lake, 2-3.5 feet above 7000 ft., and 3.5-5 feet on the crest by Thursday. This afternoons NAM model show 3-4 inches of liquid, not jumping on board with that right now but it’s something to note.
From This Morning:
Snow started falling in the Tahoe Basin around 6:30 a.m. This is from a band of snow moving through associated with the area of moisture that was pulled up ahead of the main cold front. The band should move through by afternoon and accumulating snow should stay along the crest. Not expecting much more than a dusting in the Basin today and a few inches up along the crest.
Light snow showers should stay confined to the crest through Tuesday. Resorts along the Western crest like Sugar Bowl, Squaw, Alpine, Sierra, etc. could see 5-10 inches of snow by Tuesday afternoon. The rest of the resorts could see 1-3 inchse on top. This pre-frontal moisture is just the primer for the big event Tuesday night and Wednesday. We should see heavy snowfall for about 12-18 hours making this one of the longest single storms this season.
Snow should taper to showers by wednesday night and the snow showers could last into Thursday on the mountains. I’m thinking we will see the sun at some point on Thursday with amazing conditions. Total snowfall by Thursday should be around 1-2 feet around the lake, 2-3 feet above 7000 ft., and 3-4 feet along the Western crest. That is just the beginning of a stormy pattern setting up.
Models still can’t agree on the exact track for the wave moving through Friday into Saturday. If we take a split of the models then we should pick up several more inches. Looks like we get a break Sunday and President’s day before another cold storm moves down the coast Monday night and could last into Wednesday. With the cold air and moisture being pulled in off the Pacific we could be talking a few more feet of snow for the mountains.
Next week’s pattern is a little different than this week as the ridge is a bit further East in the North Pacific. The storms will be cold and will be dropping down the coast. With that kind of pattern the exact track is more important as to how much over water trajectory they have. If they come down over land they have less snow than if they come down just off the coast. We should see several storms come down the from the North in that fashion next week and into the final weekend of the month.
Looking super long-range at the first week of March it appears that the ridge may redevelop further West in the Pacific once again. That would open the door to another strong low forming in the Northeast Pacific similar to this week. Winter is far from over…..BA
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