Less Is More…….
We have an interesting pattern developing that is playing havoc with the models but in the end we should be shoveling the results. It looks like less snow this weekend but the pattern developing should mean more as we move towards Turkey Day.
The models have been all over the place the past 2 days trying to get a handle on the cut-off low as well as the next storm diving down the coast. The consensus seems to be that the cut-off low will come in to our South with most precip missing us just to the South. We should see clouds as the storm goes by on Friday and Saturday.
The next storm dives down the coast on Sunday and models have been struggling with the track of this storm as well. As I have been saying, in this pattern the track of the storms down the coast will make a huge difference. With the ridge out around 150w 40n the storms go up and over the ridge into the Gulf of Alaska and then down the East Side of the rigde along the West coast. If they come down just over land then we get cold and light amounts of snow. If they come down over water just offshore then they pick up moisture and bring heavier snowfall.
In Sunday’s post I talked about how the Euro model was bringing the storm down off the coast over water and showing a decent storm while the GFS was showing the storm coming down over land. Over the past 2 days the models have come into better agreement and show the storm comind down more over land.
With the ridge out as far as it is in the Pacific and the PNA continuing to go negative I have felt like the track should be further West over water. I know some of you like when I go rogue and disagree with the models so we will have to see if the models go back that way or stick with the drier scenario. The NWS this morning was also not feeling right about the models, to quote “TELECONNECTIONS BASED ON A POSITIVE ANOMALY CENTER IN THE WRN GULF OF AK WOULD FAVOR A BIT FURTHER WEST AND WETTER SOLUTION.”
Either way we should get some colder air in here again for Sunday and Monday and see at least some snow falling from the sky. The Euro then keeps the cold trough digging slowly down the West Coast with some more light snow events for Wednesday and again Friday. The JMA model agrees but the GFS shows the ridge in the Pacific shifting slightly East, just enough to keep any precip to our North and East. The Euro tends to have a better track record in the long-range this time of year, but the GFS seems to be winning out this week so the model mayhem continues.
Looking into the super long-range it makes more sense to look at the teleconnections than the inconsistent models. What is interesting to watch here on the right sidebar is the the MJO continues to strengthen as it moves through the Maritime Continent moving towards the Western Pacific. It is forecasted to be in phase 7 next week and then onto 8 & 1. In November the analogs show that about a week after entering phase 7 when the MJO is in phase 8 & 1 it means cold and snow for the West Coast.
That combined with the PNA staying negative should mean that the storm door stays open through Thanksgiving. With the MJO we should see the jetstream juice up and so with the storm door open the odds increase of having a bigger storm roll in. What is interesting is that the models have been in good agreement and consistent the past several days for the week of the 21st. They show a storm digging down the coast again for a Sunday and then a bigger storm for Thanksgiving.
Remember what happened the last time the MJO came through the Western Pacific at the beginning of October? The difference now is there is more cold and a stronger jet. The NAO is also forecasted to go negative later in the month and as the MJO progresses the two together favor a trough in the East. It is possible for there to be a trough on both coasts as Texas bakes in the middle, but if the PNA goes positive it could mean game over real quick at the end of the month.
The analog years are the years in history with conditions similar to what we have now similar to the technique I use for the Winter forecast. Looking at the December analogs we historically would go into a ridge with warmer and drier weather in December as the East gets a turn. Then in January and February grab the parkas and the loaders. Stay tuned…..BA
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