Light At the End of the Tunnel?
Over the past 2 days I let the models get the best of me. I had been saying for the past week or more that I think the pattern will turn stormy by mid-month but I had no model support. Finally yesterday I did what I hate to do and threw in the towel & went with the models because I had not one model supporting my theory. The reason the local forecast on the Weather Channel and other outlets changes everyday is because they just spit out the what the models show which has no personal analysis and changes daily. You have to use use experience and old fashioned looking at the global patterns and teleconnections so you can spot model errors. They are computers and they only know what they are told through data input which can have errors. It would be like telling your computer what mood your wife is in and what you had done for her over the past week and some other info, and then asking it to tell you what her answer is going to be when you ask to go away for the weekend with your friends while she stays home with the kids. No computer can know for sure just like with the weather. I use this analogy in my head a lot because I have the personality that needs to know how everything works. That leads to an endless pursuit of understanding the weather and my wife.
Anyway, the 12z Euro is bringing back the Rex Block next week with the blocking high over Alaska and a couple of stationary lows that setup to its South to the North of Hawaii. If this happens next week we will see another series of wet storms by the end of the week and beyond. The Tuesday storm still looks weak and to our North but the new Euro has the next storm by Thursday and another for the weekend. It’s still too early to get excited and the models are a day late, but they are starting to catch onto the pattern change next week. The wild card will be the strength of the ridge off the CA coast and how far South can the storms come. Either way these are not cold storms so we will have to monitor the snow levels. Chances are looking a bit better this afternoon that the dry pattern will only last about 10 days starting this past Sunday/Monday.
Looking at the teleconnection forecasts this morning there is hope in a change in pattern around mid-month. The NAO should begin its climb back up towards positive and in turn weaken the Greenland blocking that is holding the cold in the East and jamming up the flow. Also, the ridge off the coast will not get that amplified meaning it will stay pretty flat and won’t bring us any really warm air. It also means that the jetstream will be able to crush it and get moisture into the Pacific NW.
We still look to have about 10 more days of quiet weather here with temps in the 30′s. But starting on Tuesday we should see precipitation return to the Pacific NW all the way down to the Northern tip of CA. By the end of next week into the weekend it looks as if blocking may form in the Gulf of Alaska and push the jestream into the Pacific NW. We will be on the Southern edge and could see some light precipitation. Then going into the third week of January there is the possibility that the jetstream is pushed even further South into Northern CA and we see the return of the moist flow and a series of storms. The only thing that worries me is that this kind of a pattern supports some mild storms. Stay tuned….BA
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