Longest Wave Train of the Season Coming….
Update Saturday Evening:
Not much else to say that wasn’t covered this morning. Some people around town are getting concerned about the snow levels Wed-Thurs going above 7000 ft. Don’t worry, the amount of precip we get through Thursday is minor compared to what we could see Thursday night through Saturday.
It could easily be the biggest 48 hour snowfall of the season. If the current storm tracks hold everyone down to lake level is going to get buried under feet of snow. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a resort on the crest hit 100 inches by next Sunday. Also, next weekend looks really cold so it may look and feel more like Winter than anything we have seen yet this season.
Update tomorrow to try and iron out some more of the details on daily snowfall amounts and snow levels. BA
From Saturday Morning:
A quick update this morning as I have company in town and I am hosting. Just enough time to sneak in an update before we all head up to the hill.
We’ve have had 2 big snowfall events so far this season that lasted around 3 days each. This week coming up will be the longest stretch of back to back storms and moisture streaming into Northern CA this season. Things are going to progressively get snowier as we head through the week. The jet stream will be aimed at Northern CA to start the week and then slowly push South toward Central CA the second half of the week.
The first system will bring light amounts of snow in the 1-3 inch range Sunday night. It looks like we will have a break on Monday before the next system moves in Monday night into Tuesday. The forecast models still don’t agree on how much forcing there will be but it looks limited through Thursday as the jet is aimed to our North.
Right now it looks like light snow will fall continuously through Thursday above 7500 ft. with a few inches possible every 12 hours or so. There will be lots of shadowing by the crest with heaviest amounts West of the crest and much lighter amounts in the Tahoe basin. By Thursday morning there could be 1-2 feet East of the crest in the basin and 2-3 feet up along the crest above 7500 ft.
Below 7500 ft. it looks like snow will fall Monday night through Tuesday night with several inches. Then subtropical moisture being pulled in and the fact that we will be on the South side of the jet stream means the snow levels could go up to 7500 ft. Wednesday through Thursday.
Then the big storm moves in Thursday into Friday and this one looks like it could be quite impressive. The snow levels should come back down to lake level Thursday night. It’s still a little early for forecasting exact snowfall amounts with this one, but current forecasts bring in enough precip for 2-3 feet in the basin and 3-4 feet up along the crest.
By this time next Saturday morning the consertive model runs look like this for total precip. 3-4 inches of liquid over the basin and 4-6 along the crest. Notice the 8-10 inch range is just to our Northwest where the jet stream will be aimed most of the week. It wouldn’t take much for that to push a bit further South. Up at Lassen and Shasta it looks like 6-10 feet of snow could fall this week.
There are more storms that could push in next weekend and the following week, so this could be quite a fun couple of weeks. More tonight..BA
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