5 Day forecast on the NWS site looking much better showing snow everyday after today. It’s been over a month since we saw that.
Weak system still on track to spiral in over CA on Monday. There is not much moisture with this system but with the cold air we should squeeze out 1-3 inches at lake level and 2-4 inches on the mountains.
The next storm moves in Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. The heaviest snow should fall during the day on Wednesday. Some of the forecast models have been increasing the amount of moisture the Wednesday storm will pull in. There is a split today among the models on how much moisture will get pulled in. If the Canadian and European models are right then we could be picking up 2-3 feet on the mountains, but I would want to see more models on board like the GFS before going with that forecast.
This morning I took the average forecast for precip from the GFS, Euro, Their ensembles, Japanese, NAM, and Candian models. I multiplied it by what the snow:water ratios should be for each day at each elevation. I came up with this chart for you for the next 4 days. I thought it was easier than spelling it all out. You can also click the link at the top to my new site where I put out a snowfall forecast by resort based on the forecast at 7000 ft.
You can see that we pick up a few more inches on Thursday from another weak system that looks like it will dive in quickly behind the Wednesday storm. No big dumps any day but added up across the 4 days we could see some decent totals by Friday.
After these storms roll through next weekend looks quiet. The next cold trough tries to drop in next Monday. The forecast models are split on whether or not that one will make it this far South. That was the same situation with the storm this week so hopefully they trend further South the next several days with this next storm as well.
Still waiting for the MJO to progress East into phase 3 to see if we can get a better trough along the West Coast and some bigger storms. Right now the long-range forecast is all over the place. Right now it looks quiet week 2 after the Monday system and then possibly another cold trough tries to drop in the weekend of the 10th.
I will update the snowfall forecast Monday morning….BA
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