The latest European model run brought in a quarter to a half inch of liquid along the crest tonight into Wednesday morning. Every other run and model shows only a dusting of snow so I wouldn’t expect much, but the chance is there a few inches could fall on the crest and an inch or two across the basin.

I just posted below on the record cold gripping Alaska this month. I don’t know if you could tell from my last post that I am not quite as confident in the pattern flip for this mid-month as I was for January. The pattern does look like it could go stormy the second half of the month but we need the ridge to shift far enought North for the jet stream to get in. The next 10 days the ridge will be really strong up the entire West Coast send the storms coming across the Pacific straight North as they hit the ridge.

The models still show a storm trying to reach the coast on the 8th but every model over the past 2 days except for today’s European ensembles show the storm splitting apart as it hits the ridge. The 12z European model has the storms starting to break through around the 10th and the 12z GFS around the 15th. With the PNA being the strongest it has been all season we need things to work out just right if we are going to get storms to reach CA.

One thing I don’t like to do on here is talk about negative things with regards to the snowfall forecast. You can find that on any other site. When the weather is dry I put out as many signs as I can find for a possible pattern change. Don’t confuse positive outlooks with hype. There are enough things I’m sure in your life to get you down so I do my best to find the best things I can in the weather hand we are being dealt. We have been spending a lot of time doing that this season so far.

There’s a lot of Winter going on out there in the Northern Hemisphere so sometimes we need to look at that like with Alaska to remind ourselves Winter is still out there. Big snows have been happening in Asia, Alaska, Canada, the Pacific NW, and now Europe. We got a taste of that last week with the negative PNA and North Pacific blocking. We now have picked up more snow than some of the driest years on record.  We are also lucky that we live in this time in history when we have the technology to make some good snow which wasn’t the case in the past.

Look at what they had to resort to in the 1930′s. A reader sent me this clip from the Nevada State Journal 1939. It’s about a want ad for snow that brought 6 inches to Colorado. Has anyone thought about trying this here in Tahoe yet this season? If not it may be worth a try.

Hang in there…BA

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