May Recap, etc…
Sugar Bowl is reporting 7 inches from the snow that moved through yesterday afternoon and evening, and Kirkwood is reporting 6 inches. Looks like we picked up an inch or two at lake level. Our high temperature was 25 degrees below average yesterday with a morning high of 45 to an average of 69. Squaw, Alpine, & Sugar Bowl will now all be open for skiing July 2nd, 3rd, & 4th, and Kirkwood is currently running CAT skiing. Now you just have to pick where you want to ride. Squaw was reporting a base of over 14 feet at high camp on Sunday.
The June 1st snowpack for the Tahoe Basin is still just above 100% of the April 1st average. We picked up 165% of average precip in the month of May in the Tahoe Basin and 133% of average in the Truckee River Basin. That brings the totals to 138% and 129% respectively for the entire water years that ends September 30th. It looks like there will not be good tubing again on the Lake Tahoe to River Ranch stretch as the water flows will be too high going into July to open the dam. As I stated yesterday it looks like this year could beat out last year for the latest runoff peak of the last 40 years.
The temperatures were also very cold in May after a nice start the first week of the month. We averaged 7.2 degrees below average with 11 days 15 degrees below average for the high temperature. We are now averaging 3.7 degrees below average for the past 12 months and 3.0 degrees below average for the past 3 years. I would attribute some of that to the cold water off the coast over the past few years. The same cold water that may be to blame for our prolonged winter here with the troug reluctant to leave the West coast and the storms much colder than average for this time of year.
I don’t want to look at the final number from the snow lab until after this weekend because we could see more accumulation up on the crest. I have a feeling though that we are now in the top 10 years for snowfall. We have the sun returning today with cool temps and then temps up into the 50′s tomorrow. The cutoff low will work its way down the coast over the next two days and will be off the coast by tomorrow night.
The models are still not in agreement on when the low will actually push inland. It is looking like it may stay off the coast on Saturday and with a nice Southerly flow we could hit 60 degrees at lake level with some sun. Then the low should push inland by some point on Sunday. The models have the precip lasting as long as until Tuesday as the low is very slow to push East. This prolonged period of precip could bring 1-1.5 inches of total liquid. The Euro is the wettest and the GFS has the heavist precip staying along the coast. We should see mostly rain at lake level but above 7000 ft. We could see a nice accumulation of snow with 6-12 inches possible and up to 18 inches on the crest, especially above 8000 ft.
The timing of the low pushing inland and how fast it moves East will determine how much precip and with these cut-offs that can be hard to predict. We will have to watch over the next few days. After that the rest of next week there is some unsettled weather around but it looks like we are mostly dry and sunny with highs up into the 60′s by midweek. The following week we may actually finally get to average temps for this time of year with highs up into the 70′s. Stay tuned….BA
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