If you haven’t noticed July brought real summer and it’s here to stay for a while. Been looking at some long range winter models and they look really interesting. The earth’s temps have been above average since the onset of El Nino last fall but are beginning to come down. Models are showing a huge cool down globally this winter. How does that affect us? Well with the La Nina coming on we could have quite a cold winter here in Northern CA. That cold will be coming down from the colder than normal Arctic, Alaska, & Canada. What is interesting is that the feed back from all of this cold may mean that the Eastern half of the country is warmer than normal, the complete opposite of last winter.
What I have in mind is the Jan-Feb period of 08. Anyone remember how much it snowed that period. I believe I recorded 25 feet in Tahoe Donner in a 6 week period. Then it just shut off March 1st and we came in below average. I’m hoping for a similar winter with no shut off. What is interesting during La Nina winters is that the snowfall can be above average due to it being colder and piling up faster, but the overall water content puts us below average for precip. I’m not sure I have ever seen the amount of cold for the globe that the models are predicting for the winter, so this winter should definitely be an interesting one when we see how that cold affects the pattern. One thing that is fun during La Nina years is that the MJO is much more of a predictor in terms of when the storm train will arrive. For this winter I may put a diagram of the MJO on the home page so that people can track it’s movement. BA
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