I usually don’t like to jump on one model run, but all the models this afternoon jumped all over the idea that the cold front from the Northeast pushes Friday nights storm to our South. This would mean only a few inches at best. Good news is that they are trending wetter for Sunday’s storm, so still looking for over a foot by Monday above 7000 ft. and up to 2 ft. on the crest. What we could be getting excited about is the possibility of Big storms the end of next week, after a almost a 5 week break from big storms.
Enjoy the last nice day before the change back to winter tomorrow. Low pressure and a cold front are moving backwards from East to West across the Rockies and towards CA. Meanwhile, the ridge is going to pinch off to our North into Western Canada allowing a storm to move in Friday night off the Pacific. The two may merge or may stay slightly seperated. If they merge it may up the snowfall totals. The cold front will drop snow levels to 5,000 ft. and possibly lower over the weekend making all the snow that falls powdery, as well as puffing up snow totals.
Two more storms move through, one Sat. night and another Sun. night. None of these storms are strong. Looking at around 4-8 inches with each storm with snow ratios overnight on the mountains of 15:1, and 6-10 inches on the crest. This would mean that by Monday we would have 1-2 feet above 7000 ft. with 1.5-2.5 ft. on the crest. Around a foot at lake level would be the guess right now.
Going into next week there is no agreement or consistency in the models. Reading some discussions out of the NWS they too are very frustrated with trying make a forecast. Models can’t decide if we have a ridge the beginning of the week or if the storm train continues. The GFS was the one model showing the storms continuing every 24-36 hours and this mornings model showed another 2+ feet Mon-Thurs. The latest run has now changed to a drier scenario with storms going to our North. The models are struggling with something that will hopefully get ironed out the next two days. Will split down the middle for now and say we get some weak storms with light amounts of snow.
Towards the end of next week the is more agreement that the stormy pattern will continue with some bigger storms lined up to hit CA. Stay tuned……BA
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