Monday Morning Storm Update…
Update 3 PM:
Sugarbowl is reporting 14 inches as of 2:30. Reports of up to 8 inches at lake level. The band of snow is still sitting across the basin but starting to break up. It should continue to do so and move East by tonight.
GFS came in much stronger this afternoon for the Tuesday Night to Thursday Night systems. It is now in line with the NAM showing 1-1.5 inches of liquid. The Euro came in a little stronger too showing about a quarter inch more. The trend continues now for more precip each day as we get closer. For now the higher end of my snowfall forecast below from this morning is looking likely. Update again in the morning as well as totals. BA
Update 8 am:
Already a foot of snow on Mt. Rose! Heavy band of snow was sitting along East side of the lake early this morning. 3 inches being reported in Incline. Other resorts reporting a couple of inches. Resort Totals page is updated as of 8 a.m. reports. Heavy band of snow now working up the West side of the lake so that everyone else can catch up!
From 6 am:
Models all came in with more moisture for today’s event overnight. They now show a bullseye of a quarter to a half inch of liquid over Tahoe. That should bump us up to 3-6 inches at lake level and 5-10 inches above 7000 ft. Could hit a foot above 8000 ft. where temperatures should stay in the teens all day.
Next storm for Wednesday into Thursday is looking really good. The European model continued to show over 2 inches of liquid on the crest the past 2 days and again this morning. The GFS was only showing up to an inch which was keeping me conservative. This storm won’t be as cold as today’s, but it will be close. The GFS is looking wetter this morning showing over an inch on the crest.
I am going to go with the NAM for now for the forecast because it is in the middle with the precip amounts. The snow will start late Tuesday night but the heaviest snow will fall on Wednesday. By Wednesday night expecting 6-9 additional inches at lake level, 8-12 inches above 7000 ft., 10-15 inches above 8000 ft., and 15-20 inches along the crest.
The snow showers keep going into Wednesday night and then Thursday as another weak wave dives in. The snow showers may last into Thursday evening. By Thursday night we could add another 3-6 inches at lake level, 4-8 inches above 7000 ft., and 5-10 inches above 8000ft.
Total snowfall for the week would then be around 12-21 inches at lake level, 17-30 inches above 7000 ft., 25-37 inches above 8000 ft. Along the crest 30-45 inches possible by Thursday night. We’ll have to wait until Friday to add it all up. If the GFS is right we would be on the low end of these and the Euro the high end. I will updated the forecast tonight. BA
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