Monday Evening Update…
Update 7 PM:
Ok so not to overanalyze but I know some of you need your daily fix. Not much has changed in the past 24 hours. This is going to be a little boring at lake level until Friday but if you plan to be on the mountains, especially West of the lake, this is going to be a fun week.
Snow levels will start at lake level Tuesday and then will come up Tuesday night and Wednesday reaching 7000 ft. by Wed. Then they could go as high as 7500 ft. Thursday before falling Friday. The snow level forecast is always tricky so we will have to watch it as the week progresses.
The good news is that the biggest snows will fall when the snow levels come back down with the cold front Friday into Saturday. Remember that some resorts have a base elevation of 7800 ft. so that is all snow for them. The rest go up above 8,500 so that’s at least 1000 ft. of vertical in the snow.
Looking at the forecast models this evening they all pretty much agree on the amount of precip through Thursday but disagree a little on when the heavy precip moves in at the end of the week. Through Thursday the jetstream will be to our North not only keeping us on the milder side, and limiting the amount of forcing. There will be a big difference between how much falls East and West of the lake.
Let’s break it down again based on the model average today. First let’s quickly go over lake level where down in Truckee we could see an inch or two before the change to rain. Slightly higher up around 6500 ft. we could see 2-4 inches Tuesday and 3-6 more Tuesday night before a change to rain on Wednesday. There will be a fine line just above the lake where the snow will accumulate. Between 7000-7500 ft. we could see 3-6 Tuesday, 4-8 Tuesday night and 3-6 more Wednesday before the change to rain.
The forecast above 7500 ft. is for continuous snow through Sunday. East of the crest 3-6 inches Tue, 4-8 Tue night, 3-6 Wed, and 2-4 inches every 12 hours Wed night-Fri. Totals by Friday of 2-3 feet. Along the crest 4-8 Tue, 6-12 Tue night, 6-9 Wed, and 3-6 inches every 12 hours through Fri. Totals of 3-4 feet by Friday.
Then things get really good as the cold trough pushes in bring a cold front and heavy snow to all areas by Friday night. The heavy snow will last through Saturday with snow showers through Sunday with the cold unstable air in place behind the front. We could see 2-3 feet in the Tahoe basin with 3-4 feet along the crest. That would bring totals above 7500 ft. to 4-6 feet East of the crest and 6-8 feet along the crest. The snow at lake level Tue will wash away but we could see 2+ feet over the weekend.
I will continue to watch the forecast and snow levels and will adjust daily as needed. Stay tuned…BA
Update 3 PM:
I updated the Resort Totals page to reflect the snowfall totals from the meager storm yesterday morning. Some resorts West of the lake didn’t report and I know they got snow. The rest reported 3-5 inches. I wiped the slate clean and we are ready to start adding up the numbers this week. We are starting at 40% of average for the season.
From This Morning:
No big changes other than to slow down the onset of the snow tonight until the early morning hours for the crest, and later in the day Tuesday for the basin. More updates later.
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