PM Update:

Not every October that you see a 5 day forecast like this.  This is at 7,000 ft. near Truckee.

No changes, deeper moisture now beginning to push into NW CA and will work its way Southeast overnight.

From This Morning:

No changes from yesterday. The models are in complete agreement. Refer to the precip maps from yesterday. Going forward it’s just nowcasting the current conditions as they evolve. We should see the clouds and wind on the increas today.

NWS upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning and a wind advisory for 4-8 inches at lake level and 10-18 inches above 7000 ft with 100 mph ridge gusts. That is just for the first 24 hours of the storm through Tuesday morning. Looking at the latest model guidance I would completely agree with those snowfall amounts. Up to a foot above 7k an the 18 along the crest. Lake level is tricky because if the ground was cold and temps at freezing we would see a foot of snow tomorrow but the ground is warm so that will keep down totals.

You should see light snow start to fall across the Tahoe Basin by Monday morning and then the heaviest snow falling in the afternoon into the evening. Snow showers continue Tuesday with another 6 inches possible by Tuesday night. Then a possible break Tuesday night into Wednesday before the last wave Wed afternoon into Thursday. This one could drop another 6-12 inches on the mountains. Totals by Thursday of 10-18 inches at lake level, 1.5-2.5 feet above 7000 ft and up to 3 feet along the crest.

Then expecting a break through next weekend with some warming. Long-range models still back and forth on the storm track for next week. It could be just to our North or we could continue to get storms. Will have to keep watching the trend.

Send in your snow totals starting tomorrow. A reminder that the best way to measure is to use a white board 4′x 4′in an area away from the house and not under trees, and take a few measurements to get an average. You should measure in the morning, clear the board and measure again in the evening and clear the board. Total snowfall for the storm will be higher than the settled amount on the ground. 18 inches of total snowfall for the week doesn’t mean 18 inches deep on the ground after compacting and settling.

Stay tuned….BA

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