Since we are cleaning up from the weekend and have nice weather until next weekend it’s a good time to take a quick break and do the October Re-Cap. October was a very average month, actually the most average I have ever seen. I also added the new snowfall chart to the Weather Charts page from Randall at the CSSL to include last season.
Looking at the precip the Tahoe Basin received 100% of average which is a nice start to the new water year. The Truckee River Basin ended up at 106% of average. A lot of that was the snowstorm at the beginning of the month.
Overall temperatures were 0.1 degrees above average. That makes 2 consecutive months above average which hasn’t happened since 2007 when we had 7 consecutive months to start the year. I doubt we are going to have a third with the extended forecast and the fact that after the first 6 days of the month we are 10 degrees below average.
Today is also the weekly El Nino/La Nina discussion from NOAA. There was a big drop in region 1+2 of -0.9 and region 4 of -0.5. That brings us to an average of -0.8 which is still a weak La Nina but getting closer to moderate. The 3 month average which is referred to as the ONI was up to -0.4 as of October. We need to be at a 3 month average of at least -0.5 to be officially in La Nina, and stay there for 5 consecutive months to be classified as “full fledged La Nina”.
The water off the coast cooled for the first time in a while this week as well. It will be interesting to see if that continues. As expected the Super La Nina forecasts are now gone and the forecast is for us to hit moderate before waning in the Spring. That is good because my official prediction of 105% of average snowfall for this season that I make in October was based on us having a moderate La Nina.
I want to take a break today from looking at the storm for this weekend as the models are out of sync and I want to give them a day to converse with each other and make up their minds. I think the GFS is out to lunch for those of you tracking at home. I would trust the Euro’s idea of still bringing us a snow on Sunday. I like the GFS idea of building a ridge off the coast but not until the end of the month.
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