I know you are all chomping at the bit now that I mentioned snow and the snow guns are firing. It is still early in the season and the forecast is for a dry Fall, but we may get lucky in another week or so.
In the last post I talked about the pattern change and the models still see it. I have been waiting the past couple of days for the GFS to not be the only model seeing it. The GFS always struggles with the long-range in the off-season. Look how it had this record blizzard the East Coast is going to get this weekend going out to sea earlier this week. I saw the blizzard coming at the beginning of the week on the European and Japanese models while the weather media outlets were forecasting a sunny weekend. They have an obsession with the GFS model.
The good news for us is that the long-range Euro now sees the pattern change for the West Coast as well starting next Friday. What is complicated is where exactly the ridge sets up in the Pacific. There is a big difference between 140w & 150w. The GFS model runs the past 2 days and the today’s Euro show the ridge out at 150w, just far enough West for the cold storms to dive down the West Coast from the gulf of Alaska. Even with that scenario the track of the storms is important because in order to pick up moisture the lows need to stay over water and we don’t want them coming down the coast too close to or over land.
There are several storms as the pattern looks to get stuck for about a week or more so we will have more than one chance of landing a storm. I have a lot more confidence that this pattern will bring colder air than I do snow. The latest 12z GFS today shows the ridge at 140w which is possible and would dive the storms down inside of us over land and only bring us cold air. The colder air should start to move in as early as Tuesday as retrogression begins. So there should at least be some good snowmaking the first half of November.
This pattern change is exciting though because it is a change from this ridge and gives us at least a chance of several small storms the 4th – 11th. We could have all dry storms, several small storms with a few inches each, or get lucky and have one dig off the coast. These are all cold low elevation storms, no rain in this pattern. This is very similar to the pattern the La Nina should bring us this winter. All we can do for now is to continue watching the model runs and hope for more agreement and consistency in the pattern change.
Looking super long-range I did see a model run that suggested blocking in the North Pacific pushing the jetstream South around mid-month. The chances of that happening again this year and getting dumped on before Thanksgiving are slim, but who knows Mother Nature seems to want to show up early this year in the whole country. The Pacific/North American (PNA) teleconnection is in the negative phase which does bode well for West Coast troughs and is forecasted to stay negative through mid-November.
Stay tuned for updates. I got my internet working again so they will be more often now….BA
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