Off To A Good Start….
Update 7 PM:
The snow levels have come up almost to 7500 ft. now and it’s raining over Donner Summit on I-80 for the first time. The good news is that the moisture feed is weakening and the precip should be much ligher tonight and Thursday. Still expecting 3-6 inches tonight and again Thursday along the crest, and 2-4 inches for mountains in the basin.
Looking at the latest model runs this evening both the Euro and GFS bring a wave of heavier precip Thursday night into Friday. What is more interesting is that the GFS drops the snow levels to lake level Friday morning. Will take a look again in the morning and we may need to up the snowfall forecast Thursday night and Friday, especially West of the lake and at lake level.
The GFS and NAM bring in 1-2 feet by Friday evening in the basin above 7500 ft. and 2-3 ft. along the crest. The Euro shows an extra foot by Friday evening. Then all the models are on board with enough liquid for 2-3 more feet Friday night into Saturday with the strong cold storm coming in, and up to 4 feet on the Western crest.
I have been watching next week as well. It looks like a ridge is going to build off the CA coast on Monday keeping the Tuesday storm mostly to our North but we could see some light snow. Then the ridge amplifies over the Rockies and the next storm trying to come in next Thursday will have to encounter that. The forecast models are showing the trough slowly pushing inland by the end of next week. That could lead to a cold and snowy weekend again the weekend of the 24th. I’ll keep watching that.
More in the morning. I got hit with some sort of stomach bug today and I am going to bed early. Have to rest up before things get more fun tomorrow night through the weekend.
From This Morning:
Resort Totals page is updated as of 6 a.m. Sugarbowl is reporting 28 inches in the past 24 hours, Boreal-24, Alpine-21. That is now 2-3 feet already this week for those resorts. Then the amounts drop off sharply as you go East and South. That is expected as the stream of moisture coming in off the Pacific is stalled and pointing at the Northwest corner of the lake. There is not much forcing so the rain shadow affect is keeping areas East of the crest at lower amounts.
This same pattern will continue into Friday with the only difference being the snow levels coming up today. As 6 a.m. it was still snowing at lake level but the temps are rising and the snow is mixing with rain. Snow levels should rise to 7000 ft. today and then 7500 ft. tonight. That means just rain at lake level until Friday/Friday night when the big cold storm moves in.
Above 7500 ft. expecting similar amounts to fall through Friday so another 1-2 feet East of the crest and 2-3 feet Along the crest. East Shore of the lake at Heavenly and Mt. rose maybe another 6+inches. That is before the 2-3 feet Friday night into Saturday East of the crest and up to 4 feet along the crest. Do the math and you can see that resorts with 2-3 feet already will likely end up with 7-10 feet by Sunday.
Try not to read between the lines. I have gotten a few questions about where is the snow on the East shore. I have been saying all week that there is limited forcing so not much moisture will make it to the East side of the lake until Friday. That includes South Lake Tahoe.
Filed under: Home
Like this post? Subscribe to my RSS feed and get loads more!