One Last Present……
The resorts West of the lake, which is most of them, picked up 6-12 inches overnight. Resorts to the East of the lake picked up around 4 inches thanks to the negative tilt system and not much push over the crest. The Resort Totals page is updated. So far around the lake there are reports of 2-5 inches with the most being reported in South Lake. Clouds will stick around today and a good part of tomorrow as the moist flow off the Pacific sticks around. Still raining up here in Northern CA and snowing over Lassen so I am going to wait to drive home later this afternoon after this final wave pushes through.
I get distracted when there is a blizzard where I grew up in NJ as they are rare there, or used to be until the last few years. Everyone I know from NJ still contacts me for their weather forecast whenever they hear a storm may be coming. I spent my childhood proclaiming to everyone the impending blizzards, but they don’t have ski resorts there so most people dreaded the snow rather than yearn for it like here in Tahoe. They are freaking out over 12-18 inches of snow and I laughed yesterday on the phone with my cousin as I told him we have received over 20 feet already this season on the mountains. Most people can’t comprehend the amounts of snow we receive and we are so good at clearing it that we just continue on with our daily tasks.
Ok back to our weather, we could see snow ahead of the next storm start as early as Tuesday as warm air overrides the cold air in place creating scattered snow showers. This will be a 2 part storm with the jetstream taking aim Tuesday night and then a cold front pushing through on Wednesday. The jetstream actually has quite a bit of moisture but the cold front will push it South fairly quickly and usher in really cold air. Right now I am expecting around a foot at lake level and 2 feet on the mountains. 3-6 & 6-12 inches will come on Tuesday night and then double down on that Wednesday with the cold front. The tricky thing with storms like this with so much cold air is the post frontal snow showers and high snow:water ratios. By Wednesday night the temps will be in the single digits which means 30:1 ratios. Air that cold is unstable because it cannot hold much moisture. That means we could see numerous snow showers into Wednesday night that could pile up really fast due to the fluff. That could increase the snowfall totals. We will need to fine tune the totals the next 2 days but it looks like a nice moderate sized dump for Tahoe to freshen things up for the New Year’s weekend.
The temps will struggle to get out of the teens even down to lake level Thursday and Friday, and then will stay in the 20′s into the weekend. Another small storm is looking to move in over New Year’s weekend with some light snow possible. This storm is looking like it could split with the heaviest precip to our South. It will reinforce the cold.
Looking long-term there is a difference in opinion on what the ridge will do out in the Pacific as it sits around 140-150w. The GFS is consistent in its idea of the ridge expanding North and keeping the storms to our North and Tahoe dry for about 10 days. The Euro last night and the latest GFS run this morning are suggesting a slightly flatter ridge which would allow small cold storms to continue the first week of January. I would expect retrogression of the ridge a little further West by the second week of the month allowing the storms a little more over water trajectory and bigger storms for us. The pattern continues to suggest cold and unsettled into January with no warm moist subtropical taps for a while. That could change, but this is what I was expecting for January. Cold storms from the North can be fairly big if they have a good over water path and they have higher snow:water ratios. Stay tuned………BA
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