One Step Forward, Two Steps Back….
The forecast models are back tracking for the storms next week. I still think the pattern is set up such that the idea storms next week have a lot of merit.
The models were pulling back from that idea when we last discussed on Tuesday. They were sending a cut-off low down the coast offshore and then back out to sea next week. Now it looks like a secondary trough will try to dig down the coast towards the end of next week pushing the cut-off inland ahead of it.
Still a question of where the low comes inland and then how far South the trough digs. We could see the low come in to our South, and then the trough with the cold front and snow stay to our North. But several model runs the past 2 days suggest we could see the low come inland over Central CA Wednesday with a cold trough blasting in Thursday into Friday.
If that scenario we see rain and mountain snow turning to all snow with cold, and it could pile up to several inches or more. I would like to see more cosistency in the model runs to lean towards a solution, but looking at the teleconnections a trough digging in looks plausible.
I try not to change the forecast much and spend a lot of time looking at things to do so. In the Spring and Fall though, with the change of the seasons, the forecast models really struggle and tend to do complete flips day to day. So hang tight as we try to figure out whether Spring or Winter will win the batter the second half of next week.
Another update Saturday…BA
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