Tahoe Weather Discussion.com

After a delicious holiday meal and an exciting end to the Master’s it’s time to take a look the weather. This is going to be another exciting week with what looks like lots of snow on the way along with lots of cold.

The forecast models have been in great agreement and consistent all week on the storms for this week. That boosts confidence in what we should see. It has been spring-like this weekend so once again this will be a dramatic change. It is also looking like this is going to be the last pow dump before the resorts close.

Snowfall forecast for the week…

If you have been checking the site or any other sattelite image you have seen the low spinning off the coast all weekend. That will continue on Monday before the next system dropping into the West Coast trough pushes it inland beginning Tuesday. We will see the winds pick up Monday and Tuesday as it nears and then some precip as early as later in the day. The heaviest precip looks to hold off until Wednesday.

Snow levels will fall and we will see snow to lake level as the heaviest precip moves in. This first system is not a big storm but we will see several inches on the mountains. Right now it looks like 1-3 inches Tuesday night and then 3-6 inches Wednesday with the highest amounts on the crest.

We could see another inch or two Wednesday night before the snow showers taper off between systems. Total for the first system of 1-4 inches at lake level 3-6 inches above 7000 ft., and up to 9 inches on the crest. Amounts will be low at lake level as it looks like the heaviest snow falls during the day Wednesday with temperatures above freezing.

The next storm is ready to dive in right behind the first one and this one will will have more moisture. It looks like the jet stream will take a direct aim at Central CA. Still a chance the heaviest precip could be just to our South, but the models have been consistent in bringing plenty of precip into Tahoe. It looks like the heaviest snow could move in by Thurday afternoon into Thursday night.

Jet stream forecast for Thursday…

The center of the low looks like it will move inland Friday keeping the snow showers going. It may move through slowly enough to keep the snow showers going all the way into Saturday morning. It looks like a quick dump Thursday into Thursday night of up to a foot above 7000 ft, and up to 18 inches along the crest. If the heaviest snow falls at night lake level should do pretty well with 6-9 inches possible.

Then the snow showers will add several more inches on the mountains Friday and Friday night. Total for this storm looks to be around 6-12 inches at lake level, 12-18 inches above 7000 ft., and up to 2 feet for resorts West of the lake and along the crest. It’s still several days out on this system so we will have to fine tune forecast amounts through the week. All told we could see 2-3 feet on the mountains by next Saturday.

This could be it for the season. Not only for the resorts that close next weekend, but the ones that close the following two weekends as well. Looking at the long-range forecast it looks like the storm activity will shift just to our North week 2. Then the trough may dig into the Gulf of Alaska and shift West after that. That is similar to the pattern we had during the dry spell in January as it builds the ridge off the coast blocking storms.

You can see the 6-10 day precip forecast on the right sidebar showing below average precip. Here is the CFS V2 climate forecasting model we have used to help with the long-range this season.  It shows below average precip for weeks 3 and 4 as well.

That brings us to the end of April. We could definitely see some more storms in May and I will post on that, but most of the resorts will be closed so you will have to hike for it.

So one more day of spring-like weather and then some more snow to measure and shred the rest of the week.  BA

Update Friday PM:

The resorts reported an inche or two yesterday and around an inch at lake level. No changes to the forecast below as we have quiet weather this weekend and then await the next two storms next week.

From Thursday:

Snow showers are really firing up nicely this afternoon/evening. A couple of inches being reported by some of the resorts during the day today. We could see another inch or two in spots this evening before they taper off.

We are going to have a break starting tomorrow until around next Wednesday. Temperatures will begin to warm back up into the 50′s over the weekend. A cut-off low will spin off the coast through early next week and then eventually push inland around Wednesday.

By the time the storm pushes inland Wednesday it doesn’t look to have that much moisture. It will bring colder air and the potential for a few to several inches of snow. It’s the storm behind it that looks more interesting.

The next system pushes inland Friday and this one looks like it could pull in some good moisture. Right now it looks like we could see several inches up to a foot or two. Could this be the last good storm before the resorts close later in the month?

The pattern looks to remain active to our North into the 3rd week of the month. That should leave the chance for some more precip later in the month. The teleconnection forecast look favorable for continued unsettled weather. We’ll see, hopefully we have some storms right into May to help us catch up on the water year. BA

The resorts are reporting 2-4 inches overnight from the band of snow that pushed through in the early morning hours. Resort Totals page is updated with April and season totals. 2-3 inches being reported at lake level. The sun will be out today but it will be cold. Full report below from last night. BA

This March has been called a “Miracle March by many. It was only a miracle because of how dismal the rest of the season was. In a normal year it would only be considered a good month. Last year we had a lot more snow than we did this March. We are in much better shape than we were a month a ago but we needed an insane March to make a big dent in the deficit from earlier in the season.

Using Squaw as an example they had only picked up 142 inches all season before March. In the month of March they picked up 167 inches, more than doubling the season total. That scenario was repeated at every resort around the lake. But last March Squaw picked up 241 inches.

If we had picked up the numbers we did in March every month this season we would be pushing another 800 inch season. Currently there are only 4 resorts with over 300 inches so far this season. Averaged together the resorts are sitting at around 66% of the average annual snowfall. Officially from the snow lab on Donner Summit we are at 70% of average snowfall.

Looking at the snowpack we are in better shape than a month ago when were sitting at around 30% of the April 1st average. Here is the April 1st chart for the Northern and Central Sierra.  North goes as far South as Truckee and Central includes Tahoe.  The Northern Sierra has a 79% of average snowpack and Central 51%. Tahoe would be in the middle around 63%, it usually is pretty close percentage wise to the resort’s season to date snowfall.

As far as total liquid precipitation both the Truckee River and Tahoe basins picked up 150% of average precip in March. That brings us up to 65% and 64% respectively so far for the water year which started on October 1st.

The month was slightly below average temperature wise using the Truckee Airport reporting station numbers. We averaged .6 degrees below average for the month with a high of 61 and low of 0.

So what about April? Well we started the month with 1-2 feet of snow reported Sunday from the last storm. We have a strong cold front coming in tonight with high winds and not much snowfall. We could see 1-3 inches of snow on the mountains and much colder temperatures.

Highs have been in the 50′s the past 2 days which melted the new snow pretty quick at lake level. If you busted out the t-shirt for skiing you’ll need the jacket again as we will have highs only in the 30′s the next few days at the base of the mountains and only in the 20′s up top. The best chances for accumulating snow will be tonight and then maybe another inch or two Thursday night. I would be surprised if a resort hits 6 inches by Friday up top, so this will be a pretty dry trough.

The weekend into early next week will be quiet as a cut-off low spins off the coast. The models disagree on what it does next week. The Euro brings it inland to our North Monday with the next system diving in further South into Tahoe Wednesday. The GFS keeps the low off the coast until Wednesday before bringing it inland over Tahoe. Either way the next chance for light snow looks to be the middle of next week.

Then it looks like we could see another system towards the end of next week. The storm later next week has the potential to bring a decent shot of snow so we have to keep an eye on that. Here is the precip forecast for the 11th – 19th showing that the forecast models show active weather the second half of next week.

Looking at the long-range pattern the MJO could loop into the Indian Ocean and the PNA forecast is towards negative by mid-month. That would suggest the storm door stays open but it’s April and the jet stream is weakening and retracting North. We could see some more unsettled weather and cut-off lows later in the month.

The last two seasons stayed active through April and into May. Last season was a fading La Nina with a cold PDO and cold water off the coast like this season so we’ll see if Winter tries to hang on again. It would be ironic after there was no Winter in the heart of the Winter season. Last year Squaw reported 21 inches the first week of June! I’m not saying that’s going to happen but we could still have some weather to discuss the next two months

My other blogs will all be ending this month but I keep posting on here right through the Summer as we start to look at next season after this one ends.  Shorter post tomorrow since this one was long-winded, and any totals from the light snow tonight….BA