Tahoe Weather Discussion.com

Update 8 PM:

No changes on the forecast for the weekend. It’s going to rain to start at lake level but the snow levels will drop as the cold front moves through Saturday afternoon and evening. Still looks like 4-8 inches possible at lake level, 8-12 above 7000 ft. and up to 18 inches West of the lake along the crest.

It looks like the snow showers could last into Sunday now with a few more inches possible. The models are trying to figure out next week. After a break to start the week it looks like we will see another system Wednesday with light snowfall. The question is what happens after that?

The European model brings in a strong system Thursday and then a has a cut-off low spinning down the coast through the weekend of the 7th. That would bring light snow through the period with several more inches possible. The GFS keeps the Thursday system to our North and then keeps the cut-off low off the coast with it not coming inland until possibly the following week.

It was looking like the ridge would build in for quiet weather beyond the middle of next week but the Euro is putting that in question. We will have to watch over the weekend. BA

From This Morning:

Resort Totals page is updated and there was a lot of variance in snowfall amounts with the snow showers yesterday. Resorts in the NW corner of Tahoe picked up another 10-14 inches in the past 24 hours brining their 4 day totals to 31-34 inches. The rest of the resorts picked up 2-8 inches bringing their 4 day totals to 18-24 inches. East side of the lake only 8 inches except for 18 at the top of Mt. Rose.

That will finish off the numbers for March because what falls Saturday will be reported on Sunday morning April 1st. Several resorts picked up over 150 inches in the month of March and we are at 62% of the seasonal averages combined. Some resorts are up to 70% of average and we still have another month to go.

The forecast last summer was for 75% of avarage snowfall based on the forecast for a weak La Nina. When the forecast for a super Nina came out in the fall i bumped up the forecast to average. I didn’t believe the super Nina was coming but though a moderate one was possible. We ended up only getting a weak La Nina and now it is fading out. If we end up with 75% of average snowfall for the season that would be right on par with the history of weak La Ninas averaged together for Tahoe.

Reader Reports is updated with reports of anywhere from an inch to 10 inches being reported. The amounts were higher on the North side of the lake and the higher up in elevation you go.

Now we warm up for 2 days before the cold front blasts in and drops another foot or more on Saturday. More on that this evening, but no changes from the snowfall forecast below from last night…BA

Update 7 PM:

A few more inches fell today at lake level and several more on the mountains. We will tally it all up in the morning.  The sun actually made it out this afternoon after the snow showers moved out.

Mild temps will build in with highs up into the 50′s by Friday and maybe 60 at lake level. Then a strong cold front blast through Saturday. This will be a quick dump of heavy snow with plummeting temps. Latest model runs show around 4-8 inches at lake level, 8-12 inches above 7000 ft., and up to 18 inches along the crest.

There will be rain to start at lake level with snow levels above 7000 ft. Friday night into Saturday morning before they fall as the heavy snow moves in. Colder temps will hang around through Sunday before we warm back into the 40′s and 50′s the first half of next week.

It looks like a cold front will bring a light snow event Wed-Thurs. Then the cold trough could hang around the West Coast into Easter weekend keeping the cold and the chance for snow showers around. Looking at the way the teleconnection forecasts are trending, after a possible break for the middle of April we could see some more fun towards the end of the month. BA

From this Morning:

Resort Totals page is updated as of 6 a.m. and the resorts are reporting 5-14 inches of snow overnight. A lot of variability between resorts that are close to each other. For instance Sierra is reporting 5 and Kirkwood 12, Diamond Peak 3 and Mt. Rose 14, and Heavenly only 1 inch? 3 day totals are up to 13-21 inches now. 1-3 inches being reported at lake level.

The snow lightened up a little this morning but heavier snow bands will push in over the next few hours. We should see another 2-4 inches East of the lake, 3-6 up the middle, and 4-8 West of the lake on the mountains today. The snow was wet overnight at lake level with the temps just above freezing as expected. They are coming down a little this morning as the cold front is moving through.

More later…BA

Update 7 PM:

Snow is beginning to push into the Tahoe Basin. Dew points are low so as the snow begins to fall snow levels will drop to lake level. No changes to the forecast. 5-10 inches at lake level, 10-15 above 7000 ft., and a few spots along the crest could reach 20 inches.

We will be up near 60 degrees at lake level Friday before a strong cold front brings snow Saturday. One of the things I love about Tahoe is seeing drastic weather changes in the Spring. Right now it looks like several inches at lake level Saturday night after the snow levels drop and a foot or more possible on the mountains.

The next system for Monday is trending further South on the models today so we may pick up a few more inches. Then the next sytem for next Wednesday is also trending further South. Not big storms but enough to bring several more inches and keep the snowpack in good shape going into April. It does still look like the ridge builds in after that for about a week.

See you in the morning when we tally up the numbers from tonight. It’s starting to come down good out there…BA

Update 11 AM:

Updated the Resort Totals and Reader Reports pages as of this morning’s reports. Some of the resorts did better than expected with the snow showers yesterday with anywhere from 1-7 inches being reported. That brings the storm total for the 2 days to 1-5 inches with 4-11 for resorts along the crest. We will keep adding on tomorrow morning.

From 6 AM:

Precip is already starting to move into Northern CA this morning and we may start to see some snow on the crest later this afternoon. Snow will push into the basin tonight into Wednesday morning. No change on the snowfall forecast from yesterday. Snow levels will hover near or just above lake level until the snow pushes in overnight, so any showers that get over the crest today and this evening could have some rain especially down in Truckee.

Don’t forget that the first thing I do when I wake up every morning is take a quick look at the new models, and then I post the snowfall forecast for each resort for the next five days at the link above on opensnow.com.  I also post a daily forecast at the same time.  It tends to be more brief and to the point, and focuses on the weather for the resorts and not lake level.  Then I post all my rants, detailed discussions, and updates on this site.

Updates later today as the storm approaches.  This never gets old!  BA

Update 8 PM:

Reports today of and inch or two at lake level from the snow last night. I will update the Reader Reports for the month in the morning.

The forecast models pulled back slightly today on the amount of precip moving in tomorrow night but i’m sticking with the snowfall forecast from this morning. Temperatures at lake level will be above freezing Wednesday making for a wet snow and it should be pretty thick even on the lower half of the mountains.

Update in the morning. BA

From This Morning:

Resort Totals page is updated as of 6 a.m. reports this morning. Resorts are reporting 2-7 inches in the past 24 hours. Highest amounts are West of the lake along the crest. Snow showers continue this morning and we could pick up another inch or two especially along the crest.

The next storm for Tuesday night has been coming in a little strong on the models last night and this morning. Forecast is for 5-10 inches at lake level, 10-15 inches above 7000 ft., and up to 20 inches on the crest by Wednesday night.

Then the warm-up through Friday with highs up into the 50′s ahead of the cold front Saturday. That will bring colder temps by Sunday and several inches of snow or more.

That may be the end for about a week or so but this should be a fun week to add to the great March we are having so far. More later….BA