Update 8 PM:

I have been spending the last several hours trying to dial in on the precip amounts and snow levels for this weekends bit precip event. It is a complex weather event involving several storms coming in off the Pacific with rising and falling snow levels.

To summarize what I’m seeing: We have the cut-off low that you can see on satellite spinning off the coast picking up some sub-tropical moisture and then coming inland on Friday. Snow levels will start down to lake level as the atmosphere moistens and then could rise just above lake level Friday night into Saturday. On the mountains above 6500 feet we could see 6-9 inches of snow.

Then another wave of moisture pushes in Saturday and the snow levels will start to come down a little as colder air filters into the atmosphere from an approaching cold front. By Sunday morning we could see a few inches at lake level and double down on the snowfall on the mountains.

The cold front comes through Sunday with much lower snow levels into Monday. We could see several more inches at lake level and another 6-12 inches on the mountains.

The final and possibly strongest storm moves in Monday into Tuesday with a subtropical tap which will begin to raise snow levels above lake level again. We could see up to another foot of snow on the mountains through Tuesday. Snow totals of 2-3 feet of snow above 7000 ft by Tuesday maybe more on the crest.

That is just a very summarized version of what is a much more complex storm series coming this weekend. Precipitation amounts will have to be fined tuned as we get closer as well as snow levels. Some forecast models show less precip and some more. The snowfall at lake level will be tricky with the timing of falling and rising snow levels.

Overall another decent early season snowfall is on the way this weekend into early next week for the mountains. Some of the resorts have already pushed up their opening dates to this Friday due to the snow in October and last week combined with the great snowmaking conditions over the weekend.

The long-range looks continued unsettled after Thanksgiving. A more detailed forecast in the morning…BA

From This Morning:

Due to a passing in the family I’m in the air today on the way to the East Coast. Quick post this morning and then more details tonight.

Fair weather until the cut-off low is kicked inland later on Friday. It now appears that we will see a few inches of snow on the mountains Friday night, and then the moisture being pulled in ahead of the bigger storm behind it will continue snow through Saturday. Then on Sunday the heavier precip moves in as we have quite a large storm on the way that will last a couple of days.

We could see continues snow in the mountains for about 4 days Sat-Tue with several feet of snow on the mountains. Snow levels will be tricky but right now it looks like they will start just above lake level and then lower and possibly rise and lower again during the storm. Above 7000 ft it looks like all snow and lots of it.

More details tonight after I land….BA

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