The spring-like weather will once again be interupted this week by a strong cold front. The difference with this one is that it won’t be bringing feet of snow like last week’s. The snow will start early Tuesday moring and should be mostly done by afternoon. No change in the snowfall forecast today. Expecting 1-3 inches at lake level, 2-4 inches above 7000 ft., 3-6 inches above 8000 ft., and up to 4-8 inches possible along the crest.

Then the ridge moves back in for quiet weather into the weekend with temperatures back up into the 50′s at lake level. There will be a storm moving into the Pacific NW over the weekend but the precip should stay to our North and the front will only help to move the ridge. Meanwhile the ridge is building Northwest of Hawaii and that could mean a long-wave trough sets up off the West coast next week.

That could mean several storms next week and the only question right now is how far South the heaviest precip will come. The forecast models are in remarkably good agreement again today for a stormy pattern setting up for next week. Right now the biggest precip chances look to be around Tuesday and Thursday of next week.

The pattern may remain stormy for a few weeks and I like the sound of big ridge and heat wave for the rest of the country. That can mean a trough will stick around the West Coast for a while. You can see the CPC 6-10 day precip outlook on the right sidebar shows us on the edge of the above average precip area. Here is the 8-14 day that has us on the edge as well, but even normal precip in March is good.

If the PNA goes strongly positive like the forecast model up top of the page shows we could be in for a ridge week 3. Watching the PNA forecast this week though it keeps pushing the up turn further down the road as it keeps going lower. The MJO has also started to stall in phase 3 which may help to delay the positive phase of the PNA from developing keeping a higher chance for a West Coast trough for now.

I didn’t show the CFS V2 long-range climate model yesterday like I normally do on Sundays, so here is the week 3 and 4 forecasts for precipitation. The anamoly shows above average precipitation chances for CA.

We’ll have to wait until Wednesday to tally up the snowfall. Enjoy the fresh blanket tomorrow. BA

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