September was a dry month with barely any precipitation to end the water year. We ended up around 95% of average total precip on the year. Definitely a big change to start this water year.

By tomorrow it will have rained for 6 days in a row. Reno as of last night is already reporting their 3rd wettest October on record, and should easily move to 2nd wettest by tomorrow. I know on the minds of a lot of people is, imagine if it were winter we would be buried. The clouds did clear a little over Mt. Rose this morning and it is capped in snow from 8,000 ft. up. The cut-off low is centered right over the Central Sierra and will move slowly North today and then finally to the East of us tomorrow. This will bring more rain and snow tonight and tomorrow with snow levels staying around 8k ft.

The ridge moves in over the weekend as we dry out and warm back up slightly. On Monday a storm moving into the Pacific NW flattens the ridge briefly cooling us down through Tuesday. The ridge quickly builds back in up the West Coast warming us up and keeping us dry for a while.

Models are starting to catch onto the pattern change that should begin as the MJO is on track with it’s forecast to strengthen into the Western Pacific. By the third week of the month the ridge has moved out and is set up out around 150w in the Pacific. In the winter this is our magic position for a storm to slide down into CA. Watching to see what happens with some storms taking aim at the West Coast around the 20th and beyond. Stay tuned………BA

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