Janice is the nice lady that works the chain check point over Brockway Summit. 12 hour shifts standing out in the dumping snow, that is hard core. There are a lot of people that need to rest up including myself as we have a very active period ahead.

The only changes this evening are that the storms look a little colder for mid-week. This doesn’t look anywhere near as warm as the storms in January. Looking at the thicknesses I only see the snow levels possibly going above 7000 ft. Thursday but only as high as 7500 ft. before falling by Friday morning. Even lake level will get a nice little dump of snow Monday night through Tuesday night before snow levels start to rise toward 7000 ft.

With the continuous moisture stream off the Pacific the snow on the mountains and snow-rain-snow at lake level will be almost continuous through next Sunday. There will basically be a reinforcing wave of moisture coming onshore every 24 hours. The snowfall forecast will most likely change a little through the week and picking apart each day can be a littel tricky. But here is a good starting point and we can take a new look each day.

Monday night and Tuesday we could see 9-12 inches on the mountains with up to 15 inches along the crest. Tuesday night and Wednesday we could see another 12-18 inches. Wednesday night and Thursday another 6-12 inches with up to 18 inches along the crest.  At lake level we could see 6-12+ inches Mon night-Tue night before the change to rain.

We could see another 6-9 Thursday night and by Friday morning we could have totals of 2-3 feet above 7,500 ft. East of the lake, 3-4 feet above 7500 ft. in the basin, and up to 5 feet along the crest.

Then on Friday the cold trough pushes onshore bring a cold front through.  That will drop the snow levels and raise the snow:water ratios for powdery snow that will pile up fast.  These could be the biggest storms of the week Friday and Saturday. We could see another 2 feet in the basin and 3 feet on the crest. Totals by next Sunday could be 5-6 feet above 7000 ft. in the basin and up to 8 feet along the crest.

Here is what the total precipitaion forecast now looks like through next Sunday.  Off the charts on the Western slope of the Sierra to the West of Tahoe.

Looking at the long-range snow showers could linger into next Monday and then more storms could hit the following week as the trough looks like it will stick around the West Coast.  Look at the CPC’s precip forecast for days 6-10 to the right.

On Sunday’s I also normally post up the new CFS V2 long-range climate model which did fairly well predicting the storms for the last week of Feb and first week of March back at the beginning of February.  Here is the forecast for weeks 2, 3, and 4 showing wet conditions continuing.

The only thing that causes me to pause is that the teleconnection forecasts for the +PNA and MJO phase 6-7 2 weeks from now would correlate with West Coast ridging. Unless the convection is strong through the Pacific and we see an undercutting of the subtropical jet into CA. But that is far off and before then we have lots of snow coming. It’s about time…BA

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