Sorry for the delay today. We saw a wide variety of snow totals for the storm. I had someone email me from the top of Heavenly yesterday swearing they were riding 14 inches of powder and I didn’t believe. Sure enough they reported an additional 15 inches of snow for a storm total of 17 inches.
Resort Totals and Reader Reports pages are updated. Some bands sat over the lake for a while yesterday. The resorts picked up anywhere from 3-17 inches. At lake level anywhere from 1-6 inches. The highest amounts were South of the lake.
Now for the title. The question is will we get hosed next week figuratively or literally? Low pressure is going to setup in the Northeast Pacific and will send the jestream underneath into the Pacific NW this weekend. Several waves will come onshore starting Saturday. The first one will stay to our North but the second for Sunday is trending further South and could bring several inches Sunday into Monday.
Then as another low sets up in the Northeast Pacific a strong jetstream aims a hose of moisture at Northern CA. Some of the models show a SW to NE oriented jet sitting over Northern CA which could dump tons of rain on Northern CA to our Northwest. Other models have a more W to E oriented jet pointed right at Tahoe with continues waves of moisture through the week.
The GFS for instance shows the moisture staying to our Northwest until Thursday/Friday as the jetstream finally pushes further South from another low pushing into the NE Pacific. That brings over 8 inches of rain to the NW corner of CA and then only an inch of liquid Thursday/Friday over Tahoe. The Euro on the other hand has wave after wave of moisture starting Sunday and lasting right through Friday with enough moisture for over 5 feet of snow by Friday.
In the overall pattern in the Northern hemisphere a difference in the placement of the jet of a couple hundred miles is nothing. Tomorrow is 5 days out where the forecast models usually start to come into better agreement on a solution. We will also be in range of more of the short-range models to see what they think. The potential is there for the biggest snow week of the season, but also the chance of a big disappointment. Either way I’m pretty confident we will see a couple snow events next week even if they are small/moderate sized.
Beyond next week the pattern looks like it could remain stormy for another week. The potential is there for a Miracle March. It will at least be interesting. Keep the snow dances/prayers going it’s Tahoe and we still have two months of Winter to go. More tomorrow and I will put out a snowfall forecast for the Sunday/Monday system. BA
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