We are getting a little rain today from the tail end of a weak storm hitting the Pacific NW. After that the ridge builds back in and it should be another 2 weeks of quiet weather. It’s a good time to take a look at the September numbers.
September was another dry month with the Tahoe Basin picking up only 35% of average precip and the Truckee River Basin picking up 52% of average. September completes the water year and for the whole year we did really well. The Tahoe Basin picked up 139% of average precip this year and the Truckee River Basin picked up 144% of avarage. Most of that is thanks to the huge amount of snowfall during the winter.
September was also a warm month at 1.7 degrees above average. It was the first month this year that we were above average for the month. The last time we were this warm for a month was back in October of 2008. We have only had 5 months above average since then. With the water warming just off the coast and the ridging in place this was not a surprise. We may have it happen again here in Ocbtober as it did 2 of the last 3 Ocobers preceding a La Nina winter.
The Euro model was showing a some precip for this upcoming weekend but i think that may be a fluke as the ridge should hold. The next shot at some precip should be around the 23rd-24th. The ridge in the Pacific is sitting far enough West out around 170-180w over the next 2 weeks that the trough is off the coast and a ridge will sit over the West. As we go towards the 23rd we may see the ridge sitting closer to 160w which will put the trough further east towards the West coast as a large storm moves into the Gulf of Alaska. We may get the cold front from the storm as it hits the Pacific NW.
That is 2 weeks away so stay tuned for updates and until then enjoy the nice fall weather…BA
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