PM Update:

Winter Storm Watch for the first storm Mon-Tue has been posted this afternoon by the NWS here.  Similar prediction of up to 6 inches at lake level and up to a foot above 7000 ft.  I still think we’ll see 18 inches West of the lake above 8000 ft.

From the AM:

Ok, so the easiest way to look at next week I think is to break it out into three periods, beginning, middle, end.  The reason is the model solutions agree for the first period and then disagree for the second 2, so let’s take a look at all 3.

Beginning:  Models are in very good agreement that the low spinning down the coast will bring in the first wave of moisture by Monday afternoon with snow levels down to lake level.  Taking an average of the snowfall outputs it looks like we could see 3-6+ inches at lake level, there could be up to an inch of liquid, but with the warm ground and temps above freezing the snow:water ratios will be low.  Above 7000 ft. we could see 6-12 inches with 12-18 inches along the Western crest, the amounts increasing with elevation.

Middle:  Models are also in agreement on a break Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday morning before the next wave of moisture pushes in later Wed into Thursday.  The GFS is already trying to build the ridge back in at this point and has the snow levels coming up to 8,000 ft or higher for this event and much less precip overall.  The Euro keeps the trough in place with the next wave lower and staying cold, and it basically doubles down on the snowfall from the first storm.  So that would be the 6-12 inches at lake level and 1-2 feet above 7,000 ft for the 4 day storm total.

Of note the European models have been consistent with this since yesterday, but so has the GFS on the last few runs.  The Euro also has the support of the Japanese, Navy, and Canadian models.

End:  By Friday the GFS has the ridge building in strong with warming temps while the Euro brings in one final wave.  It does have the snow levels up to 8,000 ft. or higher to start with this last system before bringing them back down close to lake level by the end.  It has the system bringing in up to another inch of liquid and totals of 3-4 inches for the week by next Saturday.  So two totally different scenarios that need to be watched.

After that there is pretty good agreement that the storm track shifts into the Pacific NW for at least a few days.

The reason for the title today is I’m just wondering if people are paying attention or taking the storm chances seriously.  Of course if the GFS is right the main issue for driving would just be Monday night into Tuesday morning.  If the rest of the models are right we could have a week of driving in the snow to deal with.  I heard the CHP say this morning that they are not lifting the ban on snow tires before Nov. 1st even with the storms coming.  I’m not one for breaking the law but I have my studded tires on a seperate set of wheels which I’m putting on my car on Sunday.  I prefer to drive out of Tahoe Donner in my car and not sled.

More later….BA

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