We are starting a week of mild temperatures and sunshine as a couple of storms impact the Pacific NW. A couple of weeks ago we were hoping we could catch the Southern end of the storm coming in to our North. Main affect may just be some wind in the higher elevations. The snow levels will drop to 4,000 feet up in Washington by Tuesday so Mt. Baker will see several inches above that.

There will be another weaker storm in the Northwest on Friday and behind that the cold trough will try to push South down the coast. Models are all over the place on how far South the cold front pushes, but either way the temperatures will be cooler if not colder and the winds should pick up.

Several storms will continue to come across the North Pacfic through next week. Several model runs have the trough trying to dig down the West coast again later next week allowing a storm coming into the Pacific NW to drop a little further South and bring us the chance of snow. We will have to watch the trend on that.

The PNA forecast has it going negative which would support the West Coast trough. Conflicting with that is the negative NAO supporting the East Coast trough we have been seeing and blocking upstream. The MJO is also forecasted to strengthen into phase 1 & 2. That would also support a trough into the West Coast, and if anything we could be having some colder weather on the way.

And the associated precip in each phase for October.

As you can see it is possibly the recipe for early season snow if the forecast holds. When the operational forecast models in the long-range are matching up with the teleconnection forecasts it increases confidence in a pattern change. We will have to keep watching this week.

The El Nino conditions continue to weaken and are almost non-existent. The conditions in region 1+2 & 2 are closer to La Nina with an average of -4 degrees, while regions 3.4 & 4 are only averaging +2 degrees. The water along the equator continues to cool from East to West. The forecast last month for possibly as strong as a moderate El Nino is now looking much different. The latest forecast below keeps us neutral through the Winter with Sea Surface Temps dropping into negative territory in the heart of Winter.

My analog Winter forecast was based on a weak El Nino so if the trend continues I may have to do an updated forecast using neutral Winters. They are much more rare with only 14 ENOS neutral Winters out of the last 60. Stay tuned for that and for updates on a possible end of month pattern change….BA

 

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