I was so tired from this past week that I took a several hour nap after looking at the models and eating lunch. The forecast is now posted below.
Resorts along the crest picked up another 1-3 inches yesterday with the lingering snow showers. The Resort Totals page is updated to show the storm totals, season to date totals, and the percent of season snowfall averages. Most resorts are in the 90-100 percent of average range. The Reader reports page is updated to show the storm totals at lake level.
Last season was a big snowfall season. Squaw had over 500 inches and Northstar had over 400 inches. I’m using them as examples because they both have daily snowfall trackers for each season on their websites. Last season they did not have as much snow as they had as of yesterday 2/19 until March 30th – April 5th. So we are way ahead of where we were this time last year.
We are going to see some light snow showers as the storm moving down the coast Monday and Tuesday misses us to our West. The air in place is still moist from the storms this week and it’s cold and unstable. Any cloud that comes over us will throw out snowflakes. There are snowshowers developing already this evening. Not expecting more than a dusting.
We are locked into this pattern of cold and storms coming down the coast for a while. One thing that is interesting in the model runs over the past 24 hours is the suggestion that moisture is able to come under the ridge in the North Pacific and merge with the lows coming down the coast. That would only add to the amount of snow they bring.
A low will work its way down the coast this week and will be off the Pacific NW coast by Thursday. That will bring a return of snow as the low rotates in waves of moisture just like we saw this past week. Models are still back and forth on whether or not the low taps into moisture coming into the ridge. The difference would be 2-3 feet Thursday-Saturday vs. 3-5 feet.
The pattern looks to stay similar going into week 2 as another low may work its way down the coast and do the same thing. This could continue with more lows coming down the coast that week. This pattern should produce significant snows for Tahoe over the next couple of weeks.
An interesting thing today in the super long-range models is the suggestion that the undercutting of the ridge in the North Pacific becomes stronger as the ridge moves a little further North. If that was to happen we could see some stronger storms with a subtropical tap the second week of March. I do have to make a flight out of town on the 8th so plan on that being the day we get hit hard. Anyone who has been reading this blog for the past few years knows that we get big snow when I go out of town. BA
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