I was up Northstar yesterday and they were moving all of their snow guns into position along the trails. It is really starting to feel like winter is almost here now as you see those guns pointed and waiting for the cold temps. This year it is looking like some snow may come before the cold. If you look at the MJO on the sidebar it is stalled in the Western Pacific, that combined with the moisture from a typhoon in Asia will be juicing the jetstream all the way across the Pacific by this weekend.
Models over the past 24 hours are still not in agreement on where the core of the jetstream will take aim this weekend, but it looks as if as far South as it will come is Northern CA just to our North. That means rain showers for us and high snow levels. The rain showers could start as early as Friday as some splitting waves come onshore and then continue through Monday as we get the Southern edge of the heavy rainfall to our North. I can’t ignore the European model that still has us getting several inches of rain here in Tahoe, but it is an outlier at this point. Snow levels will be really high, above 9,000 ft. this weekend. What is interesting is that there is a cold front coming through at the end on Monday that will drop the snow level to around lake level, so some snow flurries are not out of the question at the end if there is moisture still around into Tuesday. Then the ridge builds in for a few days, but not for long.
Looking long-range (which is dangerous this time of year), what is getting my attention is that the jetstream looks to stay strong and the ridge looks to set up around 160w and allow a decent sized cold storm to come further South into CA around the end of the month. This has been on the models for a few days now and is why I titled my blog a couple of days ago, “White Halloween”. We will have to keep watching the pattern but I will be monitoring the period of Oct. 31st – Nov. 2nd as the first potential for a low level snowstorm I have seen yet this fall. Keep your fingers crossed…..BA
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