Snow vs Spring…
Most areas around the lake picked up an inch or two overnight. Really cold air, about 20 degrees below average, will be in place today with the continued chance of snow showers. There are some heavier snow bands pushing through Reno this morning working their way South. Not expecting any more accumulation today with temperatures above freezing. There is more snow in the forecast next weekend.
The remaining few resorts that are still open are only open on weekends so we really have no way of getting any measurements up high, unless one of you is up there this morning. Temperatures today will remain below freezing above 7000 ft. and struggle to get out of 30′s at lake level.
Brief and weak ridging begins to build in tomorrow as we warm into the 50′s and then the 60′s for Wednesday and Thursday. Meanwhile, the ridge in the Pacific starts out near 170w and moves towards 150w through the week. That leaves our storm door open all week for cold storms to drop out of the Gulf of Alaska.
A low pressure is going to slowly drop South down the coast all week and become a cut-off low off our coast by Friday. This low has really cold air with it and it could pick up some decent moisture off the Pacific. Models are in decent agreement that the low will begin to eject inland beginning Sunday.
If any of you are involved with the Amgen Tour you may want to monitor this storm. It will be snowing to lake level Sunday and Monday as the low moves inland with the moisture. The big question is how much moisture and snowfall. The models have been flip-flopping with the Euro now the more aggressive model showing the possibility for 6 or more inches at lake level. The GFS is showing lighter amounts of precip today. We will have to watch this throughout the week.
The teleconnections continue to push toward a favorable pattern for us to have ridging and warmth. The AO & NAO are both now negative, but the PNA is still negative as well this week which is allowing the troughing along the West Coast. The PNA forecast is still to go positive around mid-month. This is why I have been saying warmth after mid-month.
Long-range models show the possibility of a large cold low setting up in the Gulf of Alaska next week and pushing more moisture in through out the week. There is also a lot of warmth trying to push up from the South as ridging builds in the Southwest. I think ridging will begin building in the Eastern Pacific next week trying to close the storm door. There may be a battle next week between the cold low in the Northeast Pacific and the ridge trying to build off the coast as well as the warmth from the South.
Eventually the ridging and warmth should win out and bring us some warm weather either by the end of next week or the last week of the month. It is rare to have a bunch of storms in May coming of a La Nina winter but then again it was a beast of a Winter that we’re trying to kill. Stay tuned…BA
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