It was nice driving to work this morning and seeing Mt. Rose with white peaks. What a great start to the water year for 2010/11 which started on Oct. 1st. Up to 2″ of rain fell yesterday on the mountains, with snow above 10,000 ft.

Cold cut-off low is coming onshore today. It now appears that it will set up for a few days just to our South over CA. This will keep the snow levels a tad higher at 8,000 ft. and up. It will also put us right on the northern edge of the precip bands circulating around the low. Latest models have the heaviest precip over the next few days to our South and East. We are in the .5-1.0 inches range which will equate to 5-10 inches of snow above 8,000 ft. If the low shifts to the North even a little bit we could have more in the way of precip.

Temps will stay cool all week through Thursday until the low finally moves out. We warm up and dry out next weekend. Another storm to our North will cool us down slightly the beginning of next week.

I have added the MJO diagram on the sidebar for this winter. You will want to start using it this week. If you click on it you will be directed to the NWS page that it comes from. In that site you can also find the forecast for the MJO. The MJO will be very helpful in predicting when a series of storms will impact the West Coast this winter. What we look for is for it to strengthen and move into sections 5 & 6 in the Western Pacific. Within a week after it begins to do that we will normally see amplification of the jetstream in the Pacific, and a series of storms dive into the West Coast.

The MJO is forecasted to move into those sections and strengthen over the next 2 weeks. Models have not yet caught onto this, but when they do we should see them start to show some stronger storms take aim on the West Coast going towards the middle of the month. The storms will most likely be aimed more at the Pacific NW, but we should see some impact and change in our weather. Stay tuned for developments on this. BA

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