We are still waiting for something to give here with the pattern of ridge in the West forecasted over the next couple of weeks. This is going to be a brief post as nothing has changed and since it’s the weekend I’ll have lots of time to look for hope.
The storm for Tuesday is still on the table but the models are split on whether or not the storm will split before reaching the Sierra. The GFS has been consistent on each run showing 3-6 inches with 6-9 up along the crest. The NOGAPS agrees but the Euro and Japanese models are splitting the storm with the energy diving South before reaching Tahoe.
We should be getting a better idea over the weekend. The models usually don’t disagree this much only a few days before a storm. There is better agreement beyond Tuesday with most models suggesting storms return to the Pacific NW by the end of the week. Still interested to see if the MJO can get to phase 7 this time and what its affects if any will be. The position it’s in now can be associated with a ridge but as it progresses it can be associated a strengthening jet stream that can undercut the ridge.
More over the weekend. BA
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