Snow showers have been quite heavy so far today on the West side of the lake. Snow totals may be a bit higher along the crest.
From This Morning:
Snow! I don’t think sprung is the right answer today. Resort Totals page is updated as of 6 a.m. Resorts are reporting another 18-30 inches in the past 24 hours up top. That brings the storm totals to 4-7 feet which is exactly what the forecast was for this weekend’s storm cycle. 8 day totals are now at 7-12 feet with Sugar Bowl in the lead with 147 inches. All the resorts on the West side of the lake are now over 600 inches with some quickly approaching 700 inches, and they should hit that by this weekend.
Reader Reports is also updated. At lake level reports of 5-10 more inches in the past 24 hours with totals of 2-4 feet for the weekend being reported.
It is going to be interesting to see the official numbers for Donner Summit from the Snow Lab. I think we have surpassed 94-95 and are headed towards breaking the 1982-83 winter of 672 inches. There were only 5 other winters that beat that winter in the past 130 years. 1937-38, 1951-52, and the other 3 were in the 1800′s.
Snow showers are fizzling out this morning in the basin and are confined mainly along the crest. The snow showers should continue through most of the day & into the evening with the moist flow off the Pacific. Only expecting 3-6 inches of accumulation on the mountains, best shot along the crest. Should see the sun come out when it’s not snowing in the basin.
Finally a short break on Tuesday before the next cold storm quickly dives in by Tuesday night. This storm lasts through Wednesday and the next stronger storms moves in on Thursday and lasts throug Friday. A break Saturday before another storm on Sunday into Monday. Over this period we will once again receive several feet of snow.
I have been crunching numbers this morning to try and break down individual storm totals this week. The 0z Euro and 6z GFS are pretty close in total liquid for each storm and both have a 5 day total of 3-4 inches of liquid. This last storm cycle I took an average temperature forecast of the period highs & lows and then came up with an average snow ratio. That seemed to work pretty well in forecasting the snow totals. Will do that again with this upcoming storm cycle.
Above 7000 ft. will go with an average of 15:1 ratios and around 10:1 at lake level. Models showing .75-1.25 inches of liquid with the Wednesday storm which is 6-12 inches at lake level and 12-20 inches above 7000 ft., possibly 2 feet on the crest. For Thu-Fri 1-1.75 inches of liquid is 10-15 inches at lake level and 15-25 inches above 7000 ft with more on the crest. Sunday storm could bring .5-1.0 inches of liquid which would be another 5-10 inches at lake level and 10-15 inches above 7000 ft.
That would make a 5 day total of 2-3 feet at lake level and 3-5 feet above 7000 ft. by Monday. Of note is that the 0z GFS and some previous model runs were stronger with the Thursday storm possibly bringing a foot more with that storm. Will have to watch the models today to see the trend. Either way we are going to add several more feet and enough snow to push some resorts over 700 inches on the season.
The ridge in the Central Pacific, that is responsible for the trough along the West coast this week with cold and snow, will shift to the East Pacific off our coast next week. That will block storms to our North all week and give us a break to clean up from all the snow. Expecting beautiful weather next week with an unbelievable spring snowpack.
Long-Range models (which are not as accurate during season changes) are showing the possibility of the ridge re-emerging in the Central Pacific by the first weekend in April. Will have to see how amplified that ridge becomes because that will determine how deep the trough is along the West coast. Right now the potential is there for a return to cold storms. Stay tuned…..BA
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