The weather is staying quiet as expected as the ridge sits off the coast keeping the storm track up into Cananda. We will get a cool down on Wednesday from a cold trough dropping down to our East over the Rockies. The next chance of any mentionable precip looks to possibly be around the 6th of November.
There will be some buzz in the ski world this week as with resorts like Arapahoe Basin and Loveland open in CO as is usual this time of year. The storm coming down the Rockies that is bringing us the cold air will drop highs near 80 today in Denver down to 30 by Wednesday with several inches of snow. Then on Thursday the resorts in the Northeast should see some snow.
Most of you know that when it comes to weather I love to watch the ocean and the teleconnections as I find that to be way more accurate than any weather models. Looking at the NOAA update today on La Nina things have stayed fairly steady with the overall variance for all ENSO regions. There continues to be steady cooling along the equator. The water right off the CA also continues to warm and as you can see below we are now above normal for the first time in a while. That will not help to rid us of the ridge here in the Fall.
The maps below show the changes in temps this week and then the overall temperature departures from average. Some the other interesting things we see are that it is warming near and just west of 180w in the North Pacific and cooling around 140w just off the Pacfic NW coast. That cooling may grow Southward and erase some more of the warm water in the Eastern Pacific except for what is right off the coast. Looking at the second map, if the ridge this Winter wants to sit over the warmer water and the trough over the cooler water in the Northeast Pacific, then we should have a nice pattern for cold storms.
Some of you may remember 2 seasons ago we spent a lot of time discussing the sun and it’s impact on the weather. We were setting some records for spotless months. I am still keeping an eye on the sun activity. Last year we finally began to climb into the next high activity sunspot cycle but it is is no where near where it was the last cycle yet. Forecasts show that it could peak sometime next winter and then come down again. I will continue to watch over the next couple of years and continue to monitor the research on the affects the quiter sun may have on our weather in the future.
Looking at our forecast over the next few weeks there isn’t any really good news snow wise, but no bad news either. I would like to see the MJO come around again, but as you can on the sidebar it is dying in the Indian Ocean. The pattern looks to get more progressive the first week of November with some troughs coming into the Pacific NW. The question is how far South will they come. There have been a few model runs the past couple of days that suggest a large trough could come down far enough to bring us some cold and snow around the 6th of November before the next ridge moves in.
So for now we will have a couple of cool downs from troughs to our North and East. One Wednesday and another next week. Hopefully that will help to get the snow guns firing for now. Then we will watch the pattern for the end of next week into the 2nd week of November. The long-range outlook for all of the teleconnections keeps them fairly neutral so no help there. Just some chances for light snowfall most likely into the middle of November.
You’ll hear it here first when I see some good coming down the pipeline. Stay tuned…..BA
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