We did pretty well over the weekend as back to back storms over the weekend brought several inches of snow and even over a foot to some of the resorts. That is over now and attention turns to the strong jetstream digging down the West Coast.
As you know if you have been reading along the patterns over the Pacific are just right for the storm door to be open to big storms. But the split flow blues continue as we are being setup for disappointment again. It is really hard to forecast while we continue with the split flow and the cut-offs. Hopefully as the storms get strong this Winter we won’t have to deal with this anymore.
I’m watching the weather models over the past 2 days and it is like I can hear the screeching of the brakes as the big storms hitting the Pacific NW get stopped dead in their tracks right before they hit Tahoe. It is actually pretty amazing to look at on the models for total precip through Tuesday.
What it appears is happening is that the ridge that has moved in behind the weekend storms is going to strenghthen as it moves just to our East the next two days. The position is not far enough East the ridge is stronger that it was looking to be all week on the models. Big storms are going to pound the Pacific NW all the way down to Northern CA, but the ridge will cause the jetstream to try and dive South down the coast underneath.
As the jetstream dives South it will take the storm for Wednesday night and tilt it to a less favorable for snowfall Southwest to Northeast orientation. It will also take the strong dynamics to our South away from the front as it reaches us. The main low will come inland well to our North and the storm will split apart right as it approaches.
This is really frustrating not only as a forecaster, but as a snow lover as we wait for the patterns to be like this over the Pacific for big storms. We are going to watch this opportunity be wasted, unless you want to take the drive North into Washington and Oregon. They will really get hit hard up there.
With each run of the models the storms look weaker and weaker over Tahoe. We could still see some light snowfall Wednesday night as the front moves across but I wouldn’t expect to pick up more than a couple inches. The next storm for Sunday looks like it will be held just to our North with the strengthening ridge in place over the West. This is strike three for us as we have had a chance for big snow the last 3 weekends and mother nature threw three splitters.
Unfortunately my long-range forecast for a flip to a dry pattern to start December looks like it will be accurate. If you look up top the PNA forecast continues to show a flip to positive which would support high pressure building in off the Coast and shutting the storm door.
Have you seen how cold it is up in Alaska? They are setting records for consecutive nights below minus forty degrees and record low highs of minus twenty nine degrees. That cold is going to have to go someplace, and more times than not it eventually dives into the Central US and then the East. Right now the NAO is negative which means any cold troughs should be temporary in the East. But the forecasts are split and the potential is there for it to go negative.
If that happens and with a positive PNA in the West, the pattern of a ridge in the West could get stuck for a little while in December. This is actually right in line with the Winter forecast. Good news is that the next step is for the cold and troughing to come back West and then it’s true Winter. We should have a nice cold and snowy Winter once true Winter sets in. Stay tuned……BA
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