Update 5 PM:

Forecast models pulled back a little on the total moisture forecast this afternoon.  From the beginning this storm was never forecasted to have much moisture.  But what we have working for us is the cold nature of the storm.  Above 8000 ft. we could see snow ratios of 20:1.  Throw in up to three quarters of an inch of liquid and you can see why along the crest above 8000 ft. we could get report or two over a foot.

For most of us it will be 4-8 inches around the lake.  Above 7000 ft. bump the snow ratios up a little and we have 6-9 inches.  Along the crest where the most moisture gets squeezed out 9-12 inches with the possibility of an inch or two more in spots.

Models coming more in line with a middle of the road solution for Wednesday with a few inches possible as a closed low could spin down the Sierra.  The GFS is coming in a little wetter for next weekend.  The scenario looks like a low spins down the coast over the weekend pulling in moisture off the ocean.  If it comes down over land it would be a little drier.

Next update in the morning as we start to count the inches….BA

From This Morning:

The storm is finally at our doorsteps.  We will see an increase in clouds later today and this evening, and then the snow will begin to fall this evening by midnight.

A few changes today to speed the storm up a little and increase snowfall amounts slightly.  The snow will begin falling overnight so there will be fresh powder by morning.  The storm looks like it will also pull in a little more moisture

This will be a cold storm with some light snow.  We should pick up 1-3 inches in the Tahoe Basin by 6 a.m. on Monday and 3-6 inches up along the Western crest.

The heaviest snow will fall Monday morning and then taper to snow showers that could last into Monday evening.  That will add another 2-4 inches at lake level with 3-6 inches above 7000 ft.  Lingering snow showers into Monday evening could drop another 1-2 inches.

Total snowfall by Tuesday morning should be 4-9 inches at lake level, with 8-12 inches above 7000 ft., and over a foot along the crest.

The next storm will drop down from the North on Wednesday.  The track is still uncertain as this is a compact little storm and a jog West or East could mean a miss.  Right now we have the chance of a few more inches if the storm drops down over Tahoe.

Next weekend is still uncertain with models like the European showing a couple feet from a strong low coming down the West coast keeping it snowing all weekend.  But the models like the GFS show the ridge a littel closer to the coast only allowing some cold air and maybe a little light snow to drop down the West coast.  The European is usually more consistent in the long-range so the snow chances have merit.  I will be tracking this all week.

More tonight….BA

Filed under: Home

Like this post? Subscribe to my RSS feed and get loads more!