Monday Morning Update…
Update Monday Morning:
Getting some grief about being the only one forecasting big snow. You have to understand that the major weather outlets don’t do a weather forecast for the higher elevations and the NWS that does won’t put up the snowfall prediciton until a day or two before the storm. Right now it will just say’ “little or no accumulation expected.” These are big storms and big snow will come above the snow line. Just remember I also brand this site as no hype and I alway try to be as accurate as possible. If anything I aim low on the snowfall forecast and aim high on the snow levels.
Only changes this morning are in the timing of the waves with the models still not agreeing. The first one moves in Wednesday night into Thursday. This one looks unimpressive compared to the following storms with maybe 3-6 inches above 7000 ft. with 7000 ft snow levels.
The big storm moves in on Friday with snow levels rising to 8000 ft. or higher to start. Total liquid looks to be around 3-4 inches through Saturday. Above 8000 ft. we could pick up 3-4 feet with this storm with lots of rain at lake level. The snow levels crash down to lake level on Saturday with moist flow continuing behind the cold front. It’s hard to say how much snow falls in the lower elevations based on the timing of the snow levels coming down, but 1-2 feet possible above 7000 feet and up to a foot at lake level. We’ll have to watch closely during the storm.
Another storm for Sunday that looks fairly strong and it’s all snow down to lake level. This one could bring 2-3 feet above 7000 ft. and 1-2 feet at lake level. Another update tonight..BA
Quick update this morning. The models have shifted further South again with the Wednesday/Thursday system. The GFS brings in a lot more moisture with this track and then brings in a huge storm for Friday/Saturday. Here is the new preip forecast from wxmaps.org through next Saturday from just these two systems showing 7-8 inches of liquid near the crest.
The new Euro is further South as well but doesn’t have the Friday storm as huge as the GFS. The difference between the two right now is 6-8 feet of snow above 8000 ft. along the crest vs. 4-5 feet.
Now let’s look at the snow levels. The Euro looks to try and keep them around 7000 ft. until later Thursday when they fall to lake level at the end of the first storm. The GFS looks a little warmer with snow levels hovering around 7000 ft. maybe just above to start. So snow amounts with the first storm look like 1-2 feet right now above 7500 ft. for the first system. Amounts below that will depend on the snow levels so we will have to keep watching.
The big storm for Friday into Saturday on the Euro the snow levels come back up to 7000 ft. maybe 7500 then fall on Saturday as the cold front moves through. The GFS brings the snow levels up above 8000 ft. and then slams them down below lake level on Saturday. Confidence in snow accumulation for this storm is only above 8000 ft. where the Euro would have 2-3+ feet and the GFS would have 4-5 feet with the huge storm it shows this morning. Below 8000 feet all the way down to lake level we pick up a lot of snow with this second storm but how much depends on how fast the snow levels fall.
So as of this morning it looks like 3-6 feet are possible on the upper half of the mountains above 7500 ft. through next Saturday. Should be able to get a better idea of the snow below that as we get closer but it may be a nowcasting event as we watch the snow levels as the storm is going.
This is only through next Saturday as the models bring another big and colder storm in Sunday into Monday and another behind that. Let’s not forget about the strong cold front coming through tonight with high winds and maybe a dusting of snow. Stay tuned…BA
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