There is one more weak system that could bring a dusting on Monday. Then it is going to get mild with temperatures possibly breaking 50 at lake level Wednesday-Friday.

We will be seeing a pattern shift in the Pacific by the weekend with the ridge moving North. A cold trough will be dropping down into the West next weekend which will drop our temperatures back into the 30′s by Sunday. We could see some light snow with the cold front pushing through.

Still watching for the operational forecast models to catch onto a pattern change as the teleconnection forecasts point towards one. We have not seen the MJO progress into phases 1,2,3 in the Indian Ocean yet this Winter. The forecast continues to show this.

and the composite shows above normal precip in this phase in February.

The PNA forecast is also negative which correlates troughing in the West and ridging in the East.  Both the MJO convection in the Indian Ocean and -PNA can cause a retraction of the East Asian jet stream which would cause the ridge position to retrograde West away from the West Coast.

Every time the PNA has gone negative this Winter we have gotten bigger storms and here is the forecast. Granted it was only 2 times, November and January.

So the teleconnections are forecasted to be where we want to them to be by week 2.  Now let’s take our Sunday look at the CFS long-range model for weeks 3 and 4.  Here are the positions of the high and low heights showing ridge South of the Aleutians and trough down the West Coast.

Which would bring above average precip weeks 3 and 4.  Here are the correlating precipitation maps.

So now we just wait and see what happens.  The operational models were showing the trough settling into the West next week and then some bigger storms moving in.  Now they are showing the trough dropping in for the weekend and then progressing East.

This has been a frustrating Winter so far as there have been positive signs and it has not led to where we want.  Forecast models are only good out about a week so they can change for week 2. Teleconnection forecasts are where we want them and the long-range climate model looks good.  It will be interesting to see how much the pattern flips week 2 and beyond.  Wouldn’t take much to make March the snowiest month of the season.

The January forecast was for a possible flip the second half of February and we have seen one just to our North where they are getting dumped on this week.  The ridge position is just a little too close to the West coast for us.  The MJO wasn’t active in the Indian Ocean though, and the PNA was positive.  We have much better patterns forecasted going forward.  BA

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