Updated 8 PM:
Precip worked into the basin a little earlier than expected this morning. Resorts up along the crest picked up a quick 1-2 inches.
As the core of the low pass to our South tonight and colder air moves in we should see some light snow showers into Monday. The system has weakened quite a bit and since it is moving inland well to our South we really won’t see that much precip. Maybe another inch or two on the mountains.
The next system will move in Tuesday night and it looks like it will drop several inches of snow. Right now it looks like 3-6 inches above 7000 ft. East of the crest and 6-9 along the crest Tuesday night. Then a few more inches possible Wednesday. At lake level the snow will be wet with temperatures above freezing so we could see a few inches of thick snow. We will have to watch because this afternoon’s Euro run shows about double this amount of precip.
The next storm for next weekend is trending further North. Being on the Southern side of the jet stream warm air will work in Thursday and Friday bringing snow levels up above 7000 ft. The moisture from the first weekend system moves in Friday. The models have been trending further North with this storm and we may not see much until the cold front pushes through Saturday night into Sunday. We could see several inches of snow when it does push through.
It looks like we could see one more system early next week but then it looks like we may ridge up for at least a week. Looking at the teleconnections the PNA is neutral but forecasted to go into a stronger positive pattern which would increase the chance that we see ridging along the West Coast.
We are heading into a new season and that means the MJO will have different affects on the pattern than during the Winter. Phase 7, which we are sitting in now, has a dry composite during the Winter but heading into April it is a wet one for the Pacific NW and Northern CA. Look here at phase 7 for March (on top) vs phase 7 for April (bottom).
Another look at the Tuesday night storm tomorrow as well as looking at the meager totals reported from this storm. BA
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