T Minus 3 Days…..
I added the snow reports from this morning to yesterdays so it is all on the 13th on the Resort Totals tab. Most of the resorts did pretty well with over a foot of snow.
Our hearts and prayers go out to those affected by the earthquake in Haiti. If that had not occured the news would be focused on the pounding headed towards CA. Southern CA has already been warned to start filling sandbags as 230 mph jetstream with several storms riding along it is getting ready to move in this weekend. You have 3 days to rest up and get ready.
Just going to concentrate on the first 4 storms. Storm #1 brings only clouds on Saturday as it is the fullback coming through to push the ridge, moisten the atmoshphere, and clear the way for the train. Storm #2 arrives Sunday night lasting into Monday bringing 1.5 feet at lake level to over 2 feet on the crest. Storm #3 arrives Tuesday and although the strongest part is to our South we still get another foot at lake level with up to 2 feet on the crest. Storm #4 arrives around Wednesday night into Thursday and could be the biggest storm bringing another 1.5 feet to lake level and over 2 feet on the crest. These are preliminary estimates that could could go up or down slightly depending on exact storm tracks, but they should be pretty close. 5 day storm totals by Friday would be 3-4 feet at lake level, with 4-6 feet above 7000 ft., and over 6 feet on the crest. Will adjust the amounts as new info comes in.
That is not the end. The moist jet could keep snow showers going into Saturday and after a brief break another storm train may be poised to create dejavu the following week. Models catching onto the teleconnection forecasts that would point towards continued storminess. Looks like the next storm may move in Sunday night/Monday and then more storms to follow that week.
Amazingly the snow levels look to stay well below lake level all week and temps will only be in the 20′s on the mountains. This will create light snow and up the totals with the higher snow ratios. This is not hype, this major weather event is on the way whether you believe it or not. NWS is already at a 5 out of 5 on their confidence scale for next week. We need the snow because even after an amazing December, after the last couple of weeks the Tahoe Basin’s snowpack is only 77% of average. Stay tuned as I will be fine tuning snow amounts for each storm…..BA
“All truth passes through three stages. First, it is ridiculed. Second, it is violently opposed. Third, it is accepted as being self-evident.” Arthur Schopenhauer
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