The Big Flip…
Enjoy the 70 degree days today and tomorrow before the big flip to Winter comes on Thursday. We have been talking about the cold air for a while now but the snowfall amounts have been uncertain.
As discussed in the last post, how much over water trajectory the low with the cold front has will make a big difference in the amount of moisture thrown into the cold air. Over the weekend the models went more over water with heavier snowfall and then pulled back a little into this morning. The cold air is going to fluff the totals either way.
The snow should begin to fall by Thursday morning with snow levels crashing below lake level pretty quickly. Looking at this morning’s model runs there is still discrepency between the GFS and the Euro. Both have this as a two day snowfall event Thursday & Friday but the Euro is showing almost double the total liquid. Either way this is not a big storm and light snowfall amounts. Below is the GFS total liquid.
Taking an average of the model runs and adding in the snowfall ratios with the cold temps, the initial guestimate this morning is 3-6 inches both days at lake level for a total of 6-12 inches on the ground by Saturday morning. Above 7000 feet where we could have 20:1 ratios only a 1/2 inch of liquid is 10 inches of fluffy powder so we could see 10-15 inches up there. Along the crest we could see a 1/4 inch more of liquid upping totals to 15-20 inches.
This is the kind of snow that compacts pretty fast and really fast once the sun gets back on it since it is a lot of air and fluff. Temperatures at night into the weekend will be down into the teens so the snow guns will be firing at a lot of the resorts along with the snowfall.
The snow should taper off on Saturday as the ridge builds back in. It will stay cool into Sunday with highs in the 30′s before we start to warm up a little into the beginning of next week. The pattern is going to try and repeat itself next week with another cold trough trying to dig down the coast the second half of the week. Overall there are no signs of a big dump over the next couple of weeks, but we’ll take the snow any way it comes even out the end of a snow gun this time of year.
Looking at the long-range pattern it still looks like we could see some heavier precip chances week 3. The CFS model is still on board with this as well today. It would be nice to get a bigger storm in here right before Thanksgiving.
Watching the East Coast as well this week as they have a Nor’Easter coming up the coast with high winds, heavy surf, coastal flooding, and a nice snowstorm inland. Normally this would just eat some beach and bring minor tidal flooding, but after Sandy there is no beach to eat and no dunes to stop the waves from rolling into the streets again. Also, it is going to get really cold for those without power.
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