The Good and Bad….
It’s always exciting when the wind picks up as you know changes are coming in the weather. Not many changes in the short term forecast other than to lower snow levels a little more for Thursday night down to lake level and to slow the Sunday storm. Other than that the snowfall forecast from yesterday still looks pretty good. So I’ll just repost the forecast here.
It looks like the first flakes will fly by Thursday afternoon even down to lake level. By Friday morning we are looking for around 2-4 inches at lake level with possible mix with rain, 3-6 inches above 6500 ft., 6-9 above 7000 ft., and 9-12 along the crest.
A bigger storm moves in on Friday lasting into Saturday. This storm is not looking as massive as a couple days ago but still lots of precip. Some model disagreement on the total liquid with the GFS models showing 1-2 inches and the Euro & NAM showing 2-3. Snow levels look to rise to around 7000 ft. Friday night and then falling to lake level by Saturday morning. Snow showers should continue on the mountains through Saturday with the continued moist flow off of the Pacific.
We should pick up around 1-2 feet above 7000 ft. with 2-3 feet along the crest by Saturday night. That brings the storm totals to 18-30 inches above 7000 ft. through Saturday night and 30-48 inches along the crest. At lake level we should see rain that washes away the few inches we saw on Thursday and then as snow levels crash by Saturday morning we could pickup several inches during the day Saturday with post-frontal snow showers.
The storm for Sunday still looks decent on the Euro and the NAM forecast models but drier on the GFS. It looks like the storm will slow as the overall pattern slows a little and won’t arrive until Sunday night. That could give us a break on Sunday. The GFS has this storm drier now with only several inches of snow. The Euro still has a storm that brings over an inch of additional liquid and another foot or two of snow. We’ll have to keep watching the trend for this storm.
The bad news starts after the Monday system moves out. The trough to the North of Hawaii starts to dig South . This will begin to build the ridge off the coast of CA. That will point the jet stream up into the Pacific NW and will push the storm we were wathing for Tuesday to our North. From next Tuesday and beyond it looks like the ridge might sit out near 140w keeping the storm track up into the Pacific NW until the end of the month.
Looking into February the CFS model shows us dry the first week of February and then stormy the second week. This forecast model changes a lot but it’s always interesting to take a look. Any forecast out beyond a week the accuracy drops dramatically but on this site we love to try even if we fall short. The stratospheric warming has gone full bore again which may be attributed to the forecast for the AO going negative again. The PNA is also forecasted to stay slightly negative through the end of the month.
It looks like the storms will stay close to our North but we will need the ridge in the Pacific to shift West a little to get the storms to drop down here. If there is a -AO going into February we could see another blocking pattern like we have now setup at some point. Although the weather looks drier for a week after these storms the overall teleconnection patterns will not be as bad as they were in December so it shouldn’t be too long before storms get back in here. We’ll look at this more after we get through the storms this weekend. BA
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