Quick Comment this morning as we wait for the pattern change that will start on Monday. I am getting lots of comments on all of the blogs that I write (I currently write for 6 sites w/many more sites pulling this site onto theirs) about how it isn’t going to snow for another 3 weeks. I have made lots of comments before about my opinion on only using the forecast models to make a forecast. If you want to make a weather.com forecast that changes 4 times a day go ahead. I don’t understand though how some forecasters throw out what we know about cycles, atmospheric drivers, and history, and just rely on a computer to make a forecast.

If your calculator told you 2+2=7 would you just go with that because the calculator told you? Forecast models have a crap record more than 5 days out and an even worse record when big pattern changes are coming like the one next week. It makes you wonder how some people just buy into a forecast model telling the temperature of the earth in 30 years without researching the physics of it for themselves. Everything we know is based on history not the future so that is why I look at history as a check on what the models are showing. This Winter some things have been happening that haven’t happened in the past with similar conditions in place, but going forward we have this as part of the history for the upcoming years.

So anyway the pattern will be changing next week. The ridge position will begin to shift North and then eventually into Alaska. From there it may amplify down into Western Canada. With that in place there is only one place for the storms to go, underneath. We may start with a cut-off/rexblock scenario the second half of next week delaying the onset of the storms, but the storms coming behind that will have to push East with the block to the North. This morning’s GFS and Euro both have the storms starting next weekend. This pattern would also allow the storms to draw in sub-tropical moisture as they come across the ocean for some bigger snow events.

So don’t freak out run to run of the models, let’s watch this new pattern develop next week. If the ridge moves up into Alaska and then Southeast into Western Canada we know from history that the storms should then come underneath for a prolonged snow event. Stay tuned….BA

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