Update 7 PM:

Snow is falling across the Basin and looking at the radar the band is not moving that fast and it is wide and holding together nicely. The latest GFS model run for 18z added another tenth of an inch of liquid at the last minute. That could mean we add another 1-2 inches to the totals forecasted this morning. That would be 2-4 inches East Shore, 3-6 inches West Shore, 4-7 inches above 7000 ft. and 5-10 inches along the crest. I always try to aim low in my forecasts, i’d rather get more than expected than less. Let’s see where we fall in the morning.

From This Morning:

No changes this morning. The cold front should blast through this evening bring a quick burst of heavy snow to the area. Lots of cold air will be pouring in behind the front with temps diving into the teens and not getting out of the 30′s through the weekend.

Snowfall still looks good at around 1-3 inches East side of the lake, 2-4 inches West side, 3-5 inches above 7000 ft. and 4-6+ inches along the crest.

The next cold storm is close behind and will drop in on Saturday night. This is another cold and fairly dry storm. The difference is that it is coming in to the North and sliding down over land and not coming down too far off the coast like today’s storm. The Euro is a little more aggressive with this second storm but not that much more. For now I would say that whatever you get tonight you can double that Saturday night.

Next week still looks interesting with the models all over the place. The concensus right now looks to be that the storm on Wednesday splits with one piece staying offshore and the other piece going to our North. The question is what happens with the cut-off low off the coast when the next storm pushes it inland. The Euro wants to combine it with the next cold front and push it straight into Central CA. That could mean a decent snowstorm, we will have to keep watching the trend for this cut-off next week.

Teleconnections will continue to slightly favor the trough along the West Coast through mid-month. With the new teleconnection charts up top and with the MJO on the right sidebar you can track along. -PNA and the MJO looping into the Western Pacfic favor the trough. Towards the end of the month we may see a reverse to warming and dry weather going into December.

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