The Ridge Can’t Last Forever…..
We will have more of the same this week as the ridge continues to be anchored off the coast. We have been watching the PNA above for it to return to its negative state which tends to produce a trough along the West Coast. We have started to move into negative territory but the forecast as you can see brings it right back up towards positive. So for right now it looks like we will stay in the neutral state.
We have also been watching the MJO as it is still fairly strong in the Maritime Continent. If you look at the right sidebar you can see the forecast now shows it stalling this week and dying between phase 4 and 5. With the neutral PNA and no MJO influence we may be left with a more zonal flow across the Pacfic and the placement of the jetstream may depend on the strength of it.
This week the ridge will persist out around 140w keeping the jetstream well to the North in the Pacific towards Alaska and Northern Canada. Look at this image of the jetstream for this week.
We will have another shot of cold air tomorrow and then the cold shifts East for the rest of the week. As we move towards next weekend the ridge looks like it will shift back slightly West in the Pacific. That will allow the next cold trough from Canda to dig further west towards the coast and possibly pull in some moisture. That could bring us our first shot at some light snow late next weeked or the beginning of the following week.
As we move further into the month and closer to Winter the jetstream will continue to strengthen and it ridge should begin to weaken. As we get near mid-month the forecast models show the jetstream much flatter across the Pacfic and aiming towards the West Coast. Here is the jetstream forecast from the GFS for December 13th.
Right now it looks like Pacific NW will begin to see the return of bigger storms the week of the 12th. We could see bits and pieces of light snow from the Southern edge of those storms. As we progress further into the month the jetstream should shift further down the coast at times bringing a return of snow.
I will continue to watch all the patterns. There is a lot going on right now in the atmosphere to look at. I’m hoping we can get the snow back before the Holidays and the closer we get the better chances should get as we head into the La Nina Winter. Stay tuned…..BA
Some Winter Forecasts Below.
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