Another 10-20 inches fell on the resorts in the last 24 hours. That puts the final 4 day storm total at 6-9 feet for most resorts. Resorts along the Western Crest are all reporting 100+ inches and are the ones in the 8-9 foot range, with Boreal & Sugarbowl looking like the winners which is common based on their location on the West Side. Resorts East of the lake are in the 6-7 foot range, with Northstar in the middle of the basin with 7.75 feet. Alpine is boasting their second biggest Nov. in 40 years. The areas around the lake ended up in the 3-4 foot range, and even NW Reno broke into the 15-20 inch range yesterday. These totals put most of the Lake Tahoe region at or slightly above 25% of the annual average snowfall, and it’s only Nov. 24th. That is an amazing start to the year. Please continue to send in your storm totals and pics.
I know from what I heard around town last week that no one believed me when I was forecasting 2-3 feet at lake level & 3-5 feet on the mountains by Sunday, with more Mon-Tues. Just so everyone knows that one of the goals of this blog is to not over-hype, and if anything I try to be conservative with my projections. I saw the potential to get buried, but then again it’s not too often we see one of the biggest snowfalls in Nov. in 40 years. I sometimes doubt myself when I see something like that coming. This could be a season full of big storms, especially since La Nina’s have a tendency to form pineapple connections at some point.
Temps were very cold this morning and will be every night this week. Looks like Truckee did break the record low set back in 1966 overnight, still waiting for the official announcment from the NWS. Amazing skiing conditions for the Thanksgiving holiday with just about all of the resorts opening and beautiful weather. Temps in the teens & 20′s today will warm quickly into the 30′s tomorrow and Friday ahead of the next storm.
There is another cold storm headed our way for Saturday and Saturday night. It will pale in comparison to the huge 4 days storm we just had, but it will bring more cold and snow. The storm will have less than an inch of precip to work with, but with 20:1 snow ratios again we could still see a nice little storm. Models this morning show anywhere from .25 – .75 inches of liquid over Tahoe by Sunday. That is 5-15 inches if the average temperature is 20 degrees which it should be with highs in the 20′s and lows in the teens. Right now the forecast is for 5-10 inches at lake level and 10-15 inches above 7000 ft. We will have to keep an eye on the storm the next few days to see how much moisture it can really pull in. The GFS run from the overnight only had 2-5 inches falling but right now that is the driest I have seen.
Cold air sticks around through Monday before we moderate temps again next week under a zonal flow. Basically storms will be hitting the Pacific NW and we will be just to the South. There is a chance to see a little light snow if one of them dips far enough South the end of next week.
Looking long-range the tele-connection patterns will start to turn in our favor. Now through the first week of December they favor cold and blocking in the Eastern half of the country which slows down the pattern and tries to build a ridge over the Western half of the country. Heading towards the middle of December the forecast models show the Arctic Oscillation(AO) & the North Atlantic Oscillation(NAO) going positive, and the Pacific/North American(PNA) going negative. That should remove any blocking in the pattern and open the storm door into the West Coast by the middle of December. Our chances of a decent storm should increase by the second week of December.
The Madden Julian Oscillation(MJO), which is on my sidebar, has been dead but is forecast to come back to life and strengthen into the maritimes over the next two weeks. From there it should head towards the Western Pacific by the middle of December. All of this means that things are lining up atmospherically for us to potentially have another big snow event around Christmas. Could end up being an October, November, AND December to remember. Stay tuned……..BA
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