The Teaser and The Turkey……
You can see the cut-off low nicely on the satellite today as it spins down the coast. The track of the low continues to be further and further South down the coast before coming inland. There is also another cold trough dropping down the West Coast for this weekend that has been trending more North and East of us.
Last weekend a couple of models flirted with the idea that the cut-off low would come inland across Central CA while the next cold front came down further South and West over our area. If you remember what that map looked like it showed enough liquid for several feet of snow. With the cut-off low trending further South all week and the weekend cold front trending further North and East the precip map for this weekend now looks like this.
So basically instead of merging over us they are going to circle us instead. The highest liquid amounts I have seen now for this weekend are from the Euro with up to .5 inches. Some of that being from us being brushed by the Northern end of the cut-off and the the other from being brushed by the Southern edge of the cold front. So total snowfall for the weekend should not be more than a dusting up to maybe a few inches in the mountains.
The models have come more in line for next week as they show the ridge shifting slightly East out in the Pacific, just enough to keep the trough along the West Coast from digging far enough South to bring us any storms. It should stay cool however and this is just the pattern evolving into what should be a series of storms with the biggest being around Thanksgiving.
The MJO is now into the Western Pacific so we can start the count down of the 7-10 later when we should see the results here. The PNA is still going negative as well so we have all the cards in place. The models do show a reaction in the pattern as the ridge looks like it is going to retrograde out to 160w the end of next week. It looks like it is also going to amplify further North towards the Aleutian islands.
What that all means is that the trough will be able to dig down the West coast and with a nice wavelength the door will be open to bigger storms. Currently the long-range models have a storm or two for next weekend of moderate size and then a bigger one for Thanksgiving. Although the models have been all over the place the past couple of weeks, they have been very consistent all week on the pattern for the week of Thanksgiving. So let’s keep praying that this holds and that we are eating Turkey while the snow piles up out the window.
This morning’s GFS showed quite the storm for Thanksgiving so I thought I’d give you a sneak peak.
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